EB-3 ROW, India, and the Spillover Picture: What the Data Shows for FY2026
Following our EB-2 ROW spillover analysis, several readers asked for the same breakdown on EB-3. This post covers EB-3 ROW demand, EB-3 India pending inventory, consular issuance patterns, and what horizontal spillover could mean for EB-3 India applicants.
Data sourced from USCIS published I-485 inventory reports, DOL FLAG processing times, and travel.state.gov visa bulletins. All figures based on publicly available government data. This is not legal advice.
1. EB-3 April 2026 Visa Bulletin: March vs April Changes
The April 2026 Visa Bulletin showed significant movement for EB-3 across multiple countries:
| Country | March FAD | April FAD | Change | April DFF | DFF Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | Nov 15, 2013 | Nov 15, 2013 | No change | Jan 15, 2015 | +5 months |
| Rest of World | Oct 1, 2023 | Jun 1, 2024 | +8 months | Current | Went Current |
| Mexico | Oct 1, 2023 | Jun 1, 2024 | +8 months | Current | Went Current |
| Philippines | Aug 1, 2023 | Aug 1, 2023 | No change | Jan 1, 2024 | No change |
| China | May 1, 2021 | Jun 15, 2021 | +1.5 months | Jan 1, 2022 | No change |
Source: Department of State Visa Bulletin, April 2026 (travel.state.gov)
EB-3 ROW jumped 8 months and the DFF went Current. Mexico saw the same movement. EB-3 India FAD did not move, but the DFF advanced 5 months to January 15, 2015. Philippines stayed flat.
2. EB-3 Pending I-485 Inventory by Country
The USCIS Pending EB I-485 Inventory (data as of January 2, 2026) shows the following EB-3 pending cases:
| Country | Pending I-485 | Jan 2025 | 12-Month Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 17,141 | 18,305 | -1,164 (-6.4%) |
| Rest of World | 14,664 | 17,982 | -3,318 (-18.4%) |
| China | 5,769 | 7,324 | -1,555 (-21.2%) |
| Mexico | 2,274 | 2,850 | -576 (-20.2%) |
| Philippines | 1,257 | 1,359 | -102 (-7.5%) |
| Total | 41,105 | 47,820 | -6,715 (-14.0%) |
Source: USCIS Pending EB I-485 Inventory, January 2, 2026 vs January 2025
EB-3 pending inventory is shrinking across all countries. ROW dropped 18.4% and China dropped 21.2% year over year. India is declining more slowly at 6.4%.
3. EB-3 ROW I-485 Pipeline by Priority Date
Similar to our EB-2 analysis, the EB-3 ROW PD distribution reveals the pipeline structure:
| Priority Date Year | Pending I-485 Cases |
|---|---|
| 2016-2020 | 440 |
| 2021 | 3,053 |
| 2022 | 1,627 |
| 2023 (Jan-Jun only) | 5,381 |
| 2024 | 0 |
| 2025 | 0 |
| Total | 10,501 |
Source: USCIS Pending EB I-485 Inventory PD Distribution, January 2, 2026
The EB-3 ROW pipeline stops at June 2023. There are zero pending I-485 cases with priority dates in 2024 or 2025. This is the same PERM bottleneck pattern we documented for EB-2: DOL is currently processing PERM applications filed in November 2024 (approximately 17 months behind). EB-3 PERM cases face the same delays.
The current EB-3 ROW FAD is June 1, 2024, which is already past the last pending PD cohort (June 2023). The DFF went Current. This confirms DOS has determined that EB-3 ROW demand is being met.
4. EB-3 India Pending Inventory by Priority Date
The EB-3 India pending inventory shows the following distribution:
| Priority Date Year | Pending I-485 |
|---|---|
| 2005-2011 | 270 |
| 2012 | 189 |
| 2013 | 4,067 |
| 2014 | 12,147 |
| 2015+ | 0 |
| Total | 16,673 |
Source: USCIS Pending EB I-485 Inventory PD Distribution, January 2, 2026
The current EB-3 India FAD is November 15, 2013. Here is the monthly breakdown of pending cases from the current FAD through December 2014:
| PD Month | Pending | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2013 | 354 | At FAD |
| Dec 2013 | 790 | Next in line |
| Jan 2014 | 745 | Next in line |
| Feb 2014 | 633 | Next in line |
| Mar 2014 | 578 | Next in line |
| Apr 2014 | 702 | Next in line |
| May 2014 | 920 | Next in line |
| Jun 2014 | 1,310 | Next in line |
| Jul 2014 | 1,331 | Next in line |
| Aug 2014 | 942 | Next in line |
| Sep 2014 | 707 | Next in line |
| Oct 2014 | 1,106 | Next in line |
| Nov 2014 | 882 | Next in line |
| Dec 2014 | 2,291 | Next in line (spike) |
| 2015+ | 0 | No pending cases |
Source: USCIS Pending EB I-485 Inventory PD Distribution, January 2, 2026
From the current FAD (Nov 15, 2013) through December 2014, there are approximately 13,291 pending EB-3 India cases. Note the spike at December 2014 (2,291 cases), which is roughly double the surrounding months. After December 2014, the inventory shows zero pending cases, similar to the EB-2 India pattern.
Unlike EB-2 India where the FAD advanced 10 months in the April bulletin, EB-3 India FAD did not move at all. However, the DFF jumped 5 months to January 15, 2015, which allows applicants with those priority dates to file I-485 and obtain EAD/AP benefits.
5. EB-3 Consular Issuance (FY2025)
EB-3 consular visa issuance by country for FY2025 (11 months, October 2024 through August 2025):
| Country | Consular Visas (11 mo) | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Rest of World | 10,452 | 51.2% |
| Philippines | 6,954 | 34.1% |
| China | 1,579 | 7.7% |
| Mexico | 1,096 | 5.4% |
| India | 330 | 1.6% |
| Total | 20,411 | 100% |
Source: Department of State Monthly Immigrant Visa Issuance Statistics (travel.state.gov). Consular issuance only; does not include AOS.
Two things stand out. First, Philippines accounts for 34% of EB-3 consular issuance (6,954 visas), far higher than its share in EB-2. This is driven by the large number of Filipino nurses and healthcare workers in the EB-3 category. Second, EB-3 India consular issuance is only 330 visas (1.6%), confirming that nearly all EB-3 India cases are processed through Adjustment of Status within the United States.
6. How EB-3 Horizontal Spillover Works
The spillover mechanics for EB-3 are the same as EB-2 under INA §202(a)(5). EB-3 receives approximately 40,040 visa numbers per year (28.6% of the 140,000 total EB allocation). When ROW and other countries do not consume their full allocation, unused numbers flow to oversubscribed countries.
For EB-3, the spillover picture is more complex than EB-2 because demand is spread across more countries:
- Philippines is a major EB-3 consumer (6,954 consular visas in FY2025, 11 months). Unlike EB-2, Philippines is a significant factor in EB-3 demand.
- ROW EB-3 consumed 10,452 consular visas in FY2025. With the PERM bottleneck (zero I-485 filings with 2024+ PDs) and travel bans, this may decline in FY2026.
- Mexico EB-3 saw an 8-month FAD jump in April 2026 and DFF went Current, suggesting demand is being satisfied.
The same factors reducing EB-2 ROW demand also apply to EB-3: PERM processing delays (17 months), travel bans on 39 countries, IV processing freeze on 75 countries, and MENA embassy closures. However, the Philippines consular volume is a larger factor in EB-3 than EB-2, and Philippines is not affected by the current travel bans.
6a. EB-3 Visa Number Allocation and Distribution
Understanding how EB-3 visa numbers are allocated helps explain why EB-3 India movement differs from EB-2 India.
The total annual EB allocation is 140,000 visas. EB-3 receives 28.6% of that, approximately 40,040 visa numbers per year. Each country is subject to a 7% per-country cap, which means no single country can receive more than approximately 9,800 EB visas across all categories (EB-1 through EB-5) unless numbers go unused by other countries.
For EB-3 specifically, here is how the numbers flowed in FY2025 based on consular issuance data (11 months):
| Country | Consular Visas (11 mo) | Pending I-485 (AOS) | April 2026 FAD Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest of World | 10,452 | 14,664 | Jun 1, 2024 (+8 mo, DFF Current) |
| Philippines | 6,954 | 1,257 | Aug 1, 2023 (no change) |
| China | 1,579 | 5,769 | Jun 15, 2021 (+1.5 mo) |
| Mexico | 1,096 | 2,274 | Jun 1, 2024 (+8 mo, DFF Current) |
| India | 330 | 17,141 | Nov 15, 2013 (no change) |
Source: DOS consular issuance FY2025 (11 months), USCIS I-485 inventory January 2026, April 2026 Visa Bulletin
Key takeaway: Philippines is a heavy EB-3 consumer. With 6,954 consular visas in 11 months, Philippines alone uses a substantial share of the EB-3 allocation. Unlike EB-2 where ROW dominates at 91% of consular issuance, EB-3 consular demand is more distributed. Philippines accounts for 34%, ROW 51%, and the rest is split among China, Mexico, and India.
This matters for spillover because Philippines is not affected by the current travel bans (Proclamations 10949, 10998) or the 75-country IV processing freeze. Filipino EB-3 applicants, many of whom are nurses and healthcare workers, continue to process through consular posts at normal rates. This means EB-3 has less unused ROW capacity available to spill to India compared to EB-2.
For comparison: in EB-2, ROW accounted for 91% of consular issuance and went fully Current, creating a large pool of unused numbers for India. In EB-3, ROW accounts for 51% and Philippines takes 34%. Even if ROW EB-3 demand drops due to PERM delays and bans, Philippines continues to absorb a significant share of available numbers.
This structural difference is likely why DOS moved EB-2 India FAD by 10 months in April but did not move EB-3 India FAD at all.
7. EB-3 India: What the Numbers Show
The EB-3 India queue is structurally similar to EB-2 India but with some differences:
- Total pending: 17,141 cases (vs 27,701 for EB-2 India). Smaller backlog.
- Current FAD: November 15, 2013 (vs July 15, 2014 for EB-2). EB-3 India is further behind.
- Cases ahead: 13,291 cases between current FAD and Dec 2014 (vs 7,604 for EB-2 India between Jul and Nov 2014). More cases to clear.
- December 2014 spike: 2,291 cases in Dec 2014 alone, roughly double the surrounding months. This will slow the FAD advance when it reaches that point.
- After Dec 2014: Zero pending cases, same as EB-2. A potential jump point once the inventory clears through December 2014.
The April bulletin did not advance EB-3 India FAD (stayed at Nov 15, 2013) while EB-2 India jumped 10 months. This suggests DOS is prioritizing EB-2 India spillover numbers over EB-3 India in the current allocation. However, the DFF advance of 5 months indicates DOS is preparing the pipeline for future movement.
8. Will EB-3 India See the Same Movement as EB-2?
There are reasons for cautious optimism and reasons for caution:
Positive factors:
- EB-3 ROW pipeline shows the same PERM-driven cliff (zero 2024+ PDs) as EB-2 ROW
- EB-3 ROW and Mexico both went Current, confirming demand is being met
- Overall EB-3 pending inventory is declining (-14% year over year)
- The DFF advance to Jan 2015 signals DOS expects forward movement
- Family-based spillover in FY2027 would increase the total EB pool for all categories including EB-3
Caution factors:
- EB-3 India FAD did not move in April while EB-2 jumped 10 months. DOS may be prioritizing EB-2.
- Philippines EB-3 demand is substantial (34% of consular issuance) and is not affected by travel bans
- 13,291 cases between current FAD and Dec 2014 is a larger volume than the EB-2 India equivalent (7,604)
- The December 2014 spike of 2,291 cases creates a bottleneck that doesn't exist in the EB-2 India inventory
- EB-3 has historically received less vertical spillover from EB-1/EB-2 than EB-2 receives from EB-1
9. The EB-3 to EB-2 Upgrade Factor
One important dynamic that affects the EB-3 India queue is the overlap with EB-2. Many EB-3 India applicants also have an approved EB-2 I-140 petition, either through a new PERM filing at a higher qualification level or through an EB-2 NIW self-petition. These applicants maintain their original EB-3 priority date and port it to the EB-2 category.
With the EB-2 India FAD jumping to July 15, 2014 in the April 2026 bulletin, applicants who hold both an EB-3 and EB-2 I-140 with priority dates before July 2014 may now be eligible for approval through EB-2. When they are approved via EB-2, they drop out of the EB-3 pending inventory without the EB-3 FAD needing to advance.
This dynamic may partly explain why the EB-3 India pending count declined 6.4% year over year (from 18,305 to 17,141) despite minimal FAD movement. Some of those cases were likely cleared through EB-2 upgrades rather than EB-3 approvals.
USCIS does not publish data on how many applicants hold petitions in multiple categories, so the exact overlap is not known. However, it is a well-documented practice in the immigration community, particularly among applicants with priority dates in the 2012 to 2014 range who have had years to pursue alternative filing strategies.
For EB-3 India applicants: this means the effective queue ahead of you may be smaller than the raw pending numbers suggest, because some of those cases will be resolved through EB-2 before the EB-3 FAD reaches them.
Summary
EB-3 shares many of the same structural tailwinds as EB-2: PERM delays are starving new ROW demand, travel bans are reducing consular processing, and EB-3 ROW has gone Current. However, EB-3 India faces a larger pending caseload between the current FAD and the next inventory gap, and DOS appears to be allocating spillover numbers to EB-2 India first.
The May 2026 Visa Bulletin (expected mid-April) will provide the next signal on whether DOS begins to move EB-3 India FAD forward alongside EB-2 India.
Track all 15 EB category and country combinations with month-over-month comparison at greencardclock.com/visa-bulletin.
Data sourced from USCIS published I-485 inventory reports (uscis.gov), DOL FLAG processing times (flag.dol.gov), and Department of State visa bulletins and issuance statistics (travel.state.gov). Estimates based on historical trends and publicly available data. This is not legal advice. Actual outcomes depend on government policy decisions, processing volumes, and individual case circumstances.