EB-1 India, ROW, and the Vertical Spillover Picture: What the Data Shows for FY2026
Following our EB-2 analysis and EB-3 analysis, this post covers EB-1: the first preference employment-based category. EB-1 matters not just for EB-1 applicants but also for EB-2 and EB-3 India, because unused EB-1 visa numbers flow downward (vertical spillover) to EB-2 under INA §203(b).
Data sourced from USCIS published I-485 inventory reports, I-140 approval data, and travel.state.gov visa bulletins and issuance statistics. All figures based on publicly available government data. This is not legal advice.
1. EB-1 April 2026 Visa Bulletin: All Countries
| Country | March FAD | April FAD | Change | April DFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | Mar 1, 2023 | Apr 1, 2023 | +1 month | Dec 1, 2023 |
| China | Mar 1, 2023 | Apr 1, 2023 | +1 month | Dec 1, 2023 |
| Rest of World | Current | Current | Current | Current |
| Mexico | Current | Current | Current | Current |
| Philippines | Current | Current | Current | Current |
Source: Department of State Visa Bulletin, April 2026 (travel.state.gov)
India and China are the only oversubscribed countries in EB-1. Both moved +1 month in April, both have the same FAD (Apr 1, 2023) and DFF (Dec 1, 2023). ROW, Mexico, and Philippines are all Current.
Notable: India had an 11-month jump in the January 2026 bulletin (from Feb 2022 to Feb 2023), then slowed to +1 month per bulletin in March and April. That January jump was the largest single-month EB-1 India movement in recent history.
2. EB-1 Pending I-485 Inventory by Country
| Country | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | 12-Month Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest of World | 31,964 | 23,095 | +8,869 (+38.4%) |
| India | 21,904 | 15,419 | +6,485 (+42.1%) |
| China | 4,308 | 2,924 | +1,384 (+47.3%) |
| Mexico | 1,997 | 1,530 | +467 (+30.5%) |
| Philippines | 370 | 397 | -27 (-6.8%) |
| Total | 60,543 | 43,365 | +17,178 (+39.6%) |
Source: USCIS Pending EB I-485 Inventory, January 2, 2026 vs January 2025
EB-1 is growing, not shrinking. Unlike EB-2 and EB-3 where India's pending inventory is declining, EB-1 India grew 42% year over year (from 15,419 to 21,904). ROW grew 38%. Total EB-1 pending jumped from 43,365 to 60,543.
This growth is driven by the EB-1A (Extraordinary Ability) and EB-2 NIW filing surge. Both categories allow self-petition without employer sponsorship and without PERM, making them attractive alternatives for applicants who would otherwise face the 17-month PERM backlog in EB-2 and EB-3.
3. EB-1 Does Not Need PERM
Unlike EB-2 and EB-3 PERM-based cases, EB-1 applicants bypass the DOL labor certification process entirely:
- EB-1A (Extraordinary Ability): Self-petition. No employer, no PERM, no job offer required.
- EB-1B (Outstanding Researcher): Employer-sponsored but no PERM required. Requires permanent research position.
- EB-1C (Multinational Manager/Executive): Employer-sponsored, no PERM required. Requires qualifying multinational employment.
This means the PERM bottleneck that is reducing new EB-2 and EB-3 ROW demand does NOT apply to EB-1. New EB-1 applicants can file I-140 and I-485 without waiting 17+ months for PERM approval. This is a key structural difference from the EB-2 and EB-3 analysis.
4. The EB-1 India PD Distribution: The 2022 Spike
| PD Year | Pending I-485 | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2016-2019 | 2,219 | Older cases, likely stuck |
| 2020-2021 | 1,100 | COVID era |
| 2022 | 13,446 | Massive filing surge |
| 2023 (Jan-Apr) | 4,104 | At/near current FAD |
| 2023 (May-Jul) | 15 | Near zero (below threshold) |
| 2024+ | 0 | No pending cases |
| Total | 20,884 |
Source: USCIS Pending EB I-485 Inventory PD Distribution, January 2, 2026
The 2022 spike is the story of EB-1 India. 13,446 pending cases have priority dates in 2022 alone, representing 64% of the entire EB-1 India queue. This is likely the result of the EB-1A filing surge that occurred when EB-1 dates became current or near-current in 2021-2022, prompting a wave of new self-petitions.
EB-1 India Monthly Detail: 2022-2023
| PD Month | Pending |
|---|---|
| Jan 2022 | 55 |
| Feb 2022 | 377 |
| Mar 2022 | 1,011 |
| Apr 2022 | 812 |
| May 2022 | 1,016 |
| Jun 2022 | 926 |
| Jul 2022 | 1,045 |
| Aug 2022 | 1,234 |
| Sep 2022 | 1,276 |
| Oct 2022 | 1,418 |
| Nov 2022 | 1,384 |
| Dec 2022 | 2,892 |
| Jan 2023 | 944 |
| Feb 2023 | 1,174 |
| Mar 2023 | 1,392 |
| Apr 2023 (FAD) | 594 |
| May-Jul 2023 | 15 |
The volume builds steadily through 2022, peaks at December 2022 (2,892 cases), then drops sharply after April 2023. After April 2023 there are only 15 pending cases through July 2023, and zero after that. This gap is similar to what we documented in EB-2 and EB-3 India.
The current FAD (April 1, 2023) sits right at the edge where the queue drops from ~594 cases/month to near zero. If the FAD advances past April 2023, the remaining queue is essentially empty until a new cohort appears at a later priority date.
5. EB-1 ROW: Massive and Growing
| PD Year | ROW Pending | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2016-2022 | 1,215 | Older cases |
| 2023 | 2,303 | |
| 2024 | 9,648 | Growing demand |
| 2025 | 18,309 | Massive surge (EB-1A/NIW wave) |
| Total | 31,475 |
Source: USCIS Pending EB I-485 Inventory PD Distribution, January 2, 2026
EB-1 ROW is the opposite of EB-2/EB-3 ROW. While EB-2 and EB-3 ROW show zero pending cases with 2025 priority dates (due to the PERM bottleneck), EB-1 ROW has 18,309 pending cases with 2025 PDs. This is because EB-1A and EB-2 NIW do not require PERM. Applicants can self-petition and file I-485 immediately if dates are current.
EB-1 ROW has been Current throughout our tracking period, so there is no filing barrier. This steady influx of new ROW demand means EB-1 ROW is consuming visa numbers, unlike EB-2/EB-3 ROW where the pipeline has dried up.
6. EB-1 Consular Issuance (FY2025)
| Country | Consular Visas (11 mo) | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Rest of World | 3,955 | 59.2% |
| China | 2,383 | 35.7% |
| India | 256 | 3.8% |
| Mexico | 71 | 1.1% |
| Philippines | 20 | 0.3% |
| Total | 6,685 | 100% |
Source: Department of State Monthly Immigrant Visa Issuance Statistics, FY2025 (11 months). Consular only.
China accounts for 35.7% of EB-1 consular issuance, a much larger share than in EB-2 (6%) or EB-3 (8%). This reflects the significant EB-1A/EB-1B filing volume from Chinese nationals.
EB-1 ROW Monthly Consular Trend
| Month | ROW EB-1 Visas |
|---|---|
| Oct 2024 | 861 |
| Nov 2024 | 377 |
| Dec 2024 | 391 |
| Jan 2025 | 422 |
| Feb 2025 | 325 |
| Mar 2025 | 349 |
| Apr 2025 | 344 |
| May 2025 | 217 |
| Jun 2025 (bans take effect) | 257 |
| Jul 2025 | 237 |
| Aug 2025 | 175 |
EB-1 ROW consular issuance declined from 861/month (Oct 2024) to 175/month (Aug 2025), a 80% drop. The travel bans and enhanced vetting are clearly reducing consular output for EB-1 as well, though the total volume is smaller than EB-2 and EB-3.
7. Vertical Spillover: Why EB-1 Matters for EB-2 India
Under INA §203(b), unused visa numbers in a higher preference category flow downward to the next category. EB-1 unused numbers spill to EB-2. EB-2 unused numbers spill to EB-3. This is called vertical spillover.
The question for EB-2 India applicants: is EB-1 generating vertical spillover?
The answer is: probably not much in FY2026.
EB-1 receives approximately 40,040 visa numbers per year (28.6% of 140,000). The total EB-1 pending inventory is 60,543 cases across all countries, with 31,964 from ROW alone. EB-1 ROW is Current and actively consuming visa numbers through both AOS (31,964 pending) and consular (~4,300 annualized). Unlike EB-2/EB-3 ROW where the PERM bottleneck has emptied the pipeline, EB-1 ROW has a growing pipeline because EB-1 does not require PERM.
This means EB-1 demand is likely consuming most or all of its annual allocation, leaving little or nothing to spill down to EB-2. The 10-month EB-2 India jump in April 2026 is driven primarily by horizontal spillover (unused ROW EB-2 numbers), not vertical spillover from EB-1.
8. Allocation vs Queue for EB-1
| Country | April 2026 FAD | AOS Pending | Consular (est.) | Total Demand |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest of World | Current | 31,964 | ~4,300 | ~36,264 |
| India | Apr 1, 2023 | 21,904 | ~280 | ~22,184 |
| China | Apr 1, 2023 | 4,308 | ~2,600 | ~6,908 |
| Mexico + Philippines | Current | 2,367 | ~100 | ~2,467 |
| Total | 60,543 | ~7,280 | ~67,823 |
Annual EB-1 pool: ~40,040 (base allocation, plus any vertical spillover from above, which is zero since EB-1 is the first preference).
Total demand (~67,823) exceeds supply (~40,040) by a significant margin. Like EB-2, DOS is oversubscribing because USCIS cannot process all 67K cases in one year. But unlike EB-2 where ROW has an empty pipeline ahead, EB-1 ROW has a full and growing pipeline (18,309 cases with 2025 PDs alone). This sustained ROW demand limits how much EB-1 spillover flows to EB-2.
9. EB-1A Approval Rates Are Declining
The EB-1A filing surge has coincided with declining approval rates:
| Fiscal Year | Approval Rate | Denial Rate | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2022 | ~75% | ~15% | |
| FY2023 | 70.5% | 19.4% | Declining |
| FY2024 | 60.7% | 23.3% | Significant decline |
| FY2025 Q3 | ~66-67% | ~20% | Modest recovery |
Source: USCIS quarterly I-140 statistics, USCIS FY2025 Q3 quarterly data, USCIS FY2024 quarterly statistics
The approval rate dropped from ~75% in FY2022 to 60.7% in FY2024, a 14-point decline. FY2025 Q3 data shows a modest recovery to ~66-67%. The denial rate increased from ~15% to 23.3% over the same period.
India and China together represent over 50% of EB-1A approvals. Nigeria has emerged as the fourth-largest EB-1A beneficiary nation in recent years.
The declining approval rate is relevant for the pending inventory: a higher denial rate means some of the 20,884 pending EB-1 India I-485 cases will not result in approvals, effectively reducing the true demand. However, denied I-140 petitions may be refiled or appealed, so the impact is not straightforward.
10. What This Means for EB-1 India Applicants
The current FAD (Apr 1, 2023) sits at the edge of a cliff in the pending inventory. After April 2023, there are only 15 pending cases through July 2023, then zero. If the FAD advances past April 2023, it could jump forward significantly.
However, the pace has slowed to +1 month per bulletin (down from the 11-month jump in January). This suggests DOS is managing the advance carefully, possibly because:
- The 2022 cohort (13,446 cases) is still being processed and consuming visa numbers
- EB-1 ROW demand is strong and growing, competing for the same allocation
- DOS wants to avoid retrogression by advancing too aggressively
For an applicant with a Feb 2024 PD, the current DFF is December 1, 2023, so you are not yet eligible to file I-485 via the DFF chart. If the DFF continues advancing at 4 months per bulletin (as it did in January and March), it could reach Feb 2024 within 1 to 2 bulletins. The FAD reaching Feb 2024 would take longer, depending on how quickly DOS works through the post-April 2023 gap.
11. Retrogression Risk
Multiple immigration attorney firms have flagged EB-1 India retrogression as a possibility for the second half of FY2026 (July-September). The risk factors include:
- EB-1 India pending inventory grew 42% year over year, with new filings outpacing approvals
- EB-1 does not have the PERM bottleneck, so new demand keeps entering the pipeline
- If USCIS processes the 2022-2023 cohort faster than expected, demand could exceed available numbers
- DOS has historically retrogressed EB-1 India dates in August-September when demand spikes near fiscal year end
For applicants considering filing I-485 based on the DFF (December 1, 2023), the general guidance from attorneys is: file as soon as eligible, because dates can move backward. Not legal advice.
12. Impact of Disruptions on EB-1
The same disruptions affecting EB-2 and EB-3 apply to EB-1: travel bans (39 countries), IV processing freeze (75 countries), MENA conflict (11 countries), and enhanced social media vetting (all countries). EB-1 ROW consular issuance has dropped 80% from October 2024 to August 2025.
However, the impact is different for EB-1 because:
- EB-1 ROW AOS demand is strong and growing (18,309 cases with 2025 PDs), unlike EB-2/EB-3 where ROW AOS demand has a PERM-driven gap
- Many EB-1 ROW AOS filers are from countries not affected by travel bans (EB-1A attracts applicants from Western Europe, East Asia, and other clear countries)
- The consular reduction (~2,500 fewer visas per year based on the trend) does free up some capacity, but it is likely absorbed by the growing AOS demand rather than spilling to EB-2
Summary
EB-1 presents a fundamentally different picture from EB-2 and EB-3:
- No PERM bottleneck: EB-1 demand is growing (EB-1 India +42% year over year), not shrinking like EB-2/EB-3 ROW
- EB-1 ROW has a full pipeline: 18,309 cases with 2025 PDs, the opposite of EB-2/EB-3 ROW where the pipeline is empty
- Limited vertical spillover to EB-2: EB-1 demand likely consumes most of its allocation, leaving little to flow down
- EB-1 India FAD at a cliff: After April 2023, the queue drops from ~594/month to near zero, a potential jump point if DOS advances past it
- Steady +1 month pace: DOS appears cautious after the 11-month January jump
The May 2026 Visa Bulletin (expected mid-April) will show whether DOS continues the +1 month pace or accelerates.
Track all 15 EB category and country combinations with month-over-month comparison at greencardclock.com/visa-bulletin.
Data sourced from USCIS published I-485 inventory reports (uscis.gov), I-140 approval data, and Department of State visa bulletins and issuance statistics (travel.state.gov). Estimates based on historical trends and publicly available data. This is not legal advice. Actual outcomes depend on government policy decisions, processing volumes, and individual case circumstances.