EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3 India in May 2026: Latest Approvals, Cleared Cohorts, and Why EB-3 Might Advance
India EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3 are all moving in May 2026, but they are not moving for the same reasons. EB-1 is processing near-current. EB-2 is grinding through a large original cohort, fed by years of unused EB-2 Rest of World visas flowing in horizontally. EB-3 looks heavy in the latest USCIS I-485 inventory, but the original PERM cohort behind those priority dates is much smaller than the headline number suggests. This post pairs USCIS I-140 approval counts (FY2009 to FY2025) against I-485 pending by priority-date year (2026-Q2 quarterly inventory), with authoritative public anchors from FOIA, the Congressional Research Service, and independent immigration policy research, plus the live category-level cohort numbers from the GreenCardClock Priority Date Estimator. Once you also account for the interfile downgrades that piled into EB-3 during 2020 to 2024, and notice that the new downgrade wave is receding, the structural case for EB-3 India advancing looks better than the inventory snapshot implies.
Approval dates come from anonymized self-reported community timelines aggregated through May 17, 2026. I-485 inventory by priority-date year is sourced from USCIS quarterly Employment-Based I-485 Inventory reports. Historical I-140 approval counts are sourced from USCIS quarterly I-140 reports (FY2009 to FY2025). Visa bulletin facts come from the U.S. Department of State (travel.state.gov). Estimates based on historical trends, not guarantees. Not legal advice.
Live category-level estimates from the Priority Date Estimator
The GreenCardClock /priority-date page includes an "I-140 Backlog & True Demand" component that computes, for any (country, category, priority date) you enter, the total I-140 approved cohort awaiting visa availability and your personal demand ahead of your PD. The current category-level totals (across all priority dates) are roughly:
- India EB-3 total I-140 approved awaiting visa availability: approximately 210,000 (matches cumulative USCIS India EB-3 I-140 approvals FY2009-FY2025 of 209,965, minus visas already issued)
- India EB-2 total I-140 approved awaiting visa availability: in the high hundreds of thousands, consistent with the public estimates below
- India EB-1 total I-140 approved awaiting visa availability: approximately 130,000 to 140,000
The blog post below is a complement to those category-level totals. The Priority Date Estimator gives you the aggregate "true demand"; this post breaks the queue down by priority-date year to show how it distributes across PD cohorts, and where the interfile downgrades are landing.
Authoritative public anchors for the India EB-2 backlog
Independent of any platform's modeling, the size of the India EB-2 backlog has been estimated multiple times by FOIA-released USCIS data and by published research:
| Date | Source | India EB-2 approved waiting |
|---|---|---|
| April 2018 | USCIS FOIA response | ~216,684 |
| November 2019 | Congressional Research Service R46291 | ~568,414 |
| 2023 | Independent policy research | ~750,000 |
| March 2025 | GreenCardClock engine projection | ~880,000 |
The growth from ~217K in 2018 to ~880K in early 2025 reflects continued I-140 approvals (40K-65K per year for India EB-2) far outstripping per-country visa allocation (effectively about 15K per year with horizontal spillover from EB-2 Rest of World). The India EB-3 equivalent backlog is meaningfully smaller because the original EB-3 demand from India was always a fraction of EB-2 demand, even before AC-21 portability and dual-filing strategies amplified the EB-2 number.
Recently approved India cases (community snapshot)
Fourteen representative I-485 approvals from the community timeline database, March through May 2026, across all three India employment-based categories:
| Category | Priority Date | Approved On | Brief Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 India | 2017-08-30 | 2026-03-12 | No RFE, no interview |
| EB-1 India | 2015-04-01 | 2026-03-28 | Texas FO, approved after 14 months |
| EB-1 India | 2025-01-08 | 2026-03-24 | EB-1A approved after 15 months |
| EB-1 India | 2020-10-01 | 2026-04-13 | EB-1C I-485 timeline |
| EB-1 India | 2026-04-15 | 2026-04-09 | GC received, near-current PD |
| EB-1 India | 2022-01-01 | 2026-05-10 | EB-1 I-485 approved (MSC series) |
| EB-2 India | 2013-04-01 | 2026-02-16 | AOS approval |
| EB-2 India | 2013-04-01 | 2025-08-30 | PD April 2013, downgrade interfile path |
| EB-2 India | 2013-09-01 | 2026-05-02 | Texas FO, PD became current in April 2026 bulletin |
| EB-2 India | 2013-09-01 | 2026-05-09 | PD Sep 2013, 14-year wait |
| EB-2 India | 2014-07-01 | 2026-04-07 | I-485 transfer to San Bernardino FO |
| EB-2 India | 2014-03-01 | 2026-05-15 | New Card is being produced, latest in sample |
| EB-3 India | 2013-09-24 | 2026-03-12 | Lawrence FO, I-485 approved |
| EB-3 India | 2013-10-01 | 2026-04-08 | I-485 approval and interview experience |
The latest priority date observed as fully approved per category sets a useful upper bound on what is moving right now: EB-1 India PD April 15, 2026 (processing near-current under Final Action Dates through April 2026, before the June 2026 retrogression), EB-2 India PD July 1, 2014 (bulk at 2013 PDs and a few at 2014), EB-3 India PD October 1, 2013 (cluster at September-October 2013).
Methodology: what we know about PERM-to-I-140-approval lag, and what we don't
The hardest part of comparing I-140 approval counts (bucketed by approval fiscal year) to I-485 pending counts (bucketed by priority-date year) is the lag between them. USCIS does not publish I-140 approval counts broken out by priority-date year, so any per-PD-year cohort estimate has to back-calculate from the I-140 approval FY using an assumed lag. Here is what is publicly known about that lag for the 2010 to 2014 PERM era:
- PERM processing time, 2010 to 2014: standard (non-audited) PERMs ran 3 to 6 months. Audited PERMs added 9 to 10 months according to AILA's 2013 conference reporting. The audit rate was approximately 42 percent of PERM filings in that era, with about 50 percent of audited cases denied. Weighted average PERM processing was roughly 9 to 12 months for cases that ultimately got certified.
- I-140 processing time, 2010 to 2014: standard processing ran 6 to 8 months. Premium processing (15-day decision) was available for I-140 EB-2 and EB-3 throughout this window. Premium processing was reinstated June 29, 2009 after the 2007 suspension and remained available until the 2017 to 2020 partial suspensions.
- Combined PD-to-I-140-approval lag: roughly 9 to 14 months for non-audited cases with premium processing, 12 to 18 months for non-audited cases with standard I-140, and 18 to 24+ months for audited cases. The population median was probably 12 to 18 months, with a meaningful right-tail of 24+ month cases.
- What USCIS does NOT publish: per-PD-year breakdowns within annual I-140 approval counts. A single FY's I-140 approval total includes cases with PDs spanning roughly two FY years back to the year before that FY (e.g. FY2016 I-140 approvals include PD 2014 cases that processed normally and PD 2015 cases that premium-processed fast).
Implication for this post: aggregate cohort estimates across multi-year PD ranges (e.g. "PD 2010 to 2014 EB-3 India original cohort") are robust within roughly ±15 percent. Per-PD-year point estimates carry wider uncertainty (probably ±25 percent) and are shown below as ranges, not point estimates. For a personalized "demand ahead of your PD" figure that uses era-specific lag and conversion rates per (country, category, era), the live Priority Date Estimator does the computation against current USCIS quarterly data.
Aggregate cohort: PD 2010 to 2014 India, EB-2 vs EB-3
Summing pre-downgrade-wave I-140 approvals (FY2011 through FY2016, with weighting to account for the lag bracket spanning the start and end FYs):
| Category | Aggregate I-140 cohort, PD 2010-2014 | Current I-485 pending PD 2010-2014 (2026-Q2) | Approximate aggregate cleared |
|---|---|---|---|
| India EB-2 | ~144,000-156,000 | 27,150 | ~117,000-129,000 |
| India EB-3 | ~54,000-62,000 | 16,498 | ~38,000-46,000 |
The "approximate aggregate cleared" range covers the natural ±15 percent cohort uncertainty plus the small consular slice that left the I-485 path entirely (India EB-3 consular issuance in FY2025 was 334).
Per-PD-year I-485 pending (direct USCIS data) with cohort range
For each priority-date year, the I-485 pending count is direct USCIS data with no estimation needed. The original I-140 cohort by PD year is a range, because allocating the relevant FY I-140 approvals across PD years requires an assumption about the lag distribution.
India EB-3
| PD Year | Original I-140 cohort (range) | Current I-485 pending | Cleared (range) | Pending share of cohort |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | ~9,000-11,000 | 35 | ~9,000-11,000 | ~0.3% |
| 2011 | ~9,500-11,500 | 60 | ~9,400-11,400 | ~0.5% |
| 2012 | ~10,000-12,000 | 189 | ~9,800-11,800 | ~1.7% |
| 2013 | ~10,500-13,000 | 4,067 | ~6,400-8,900 | ~31-39% |
| 2014 | ~11,500-15,000 | 12,147 | ~0-2,900 | ~81-106% |
The PD 2014 row is the interesting one. Pending (12,147) is in the same ballpark as the estimated original cohort (11,500-15,000), which would normally mean almost nothing has cleared. But the 12,147 also includes thousands of interfile downgrades from EB-2 that landed in that bucket between 2020 and 2024 with the original 2014 PERM PDs preserved. With those added, the effective PD 2014 pool (originals + downgrade-in) is more like 14,000 to 21,000, of which 12,147 is still pending and roughly 2,000 to 9,000 has cleared.
India EB-2
| PD Year | Original I-140 cohort (range) | Current I-485 pending | Cleared (range) | Pending share of cohort |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | ~23,000-25,000 | 74 | ~23,000-25,000 | ~0.3% |
| 2011 | ~26,000-30,000 | 143 | ~26,000-30,000 | ~0.5% |
| 2012 | ~27,000-31,000 | 420 | ~27,000-31,000 | ~1.4% |
| 2013 | ~28,000-32,000 | 9,549 | ~18,000-22,000 | ~30-34% |
| 2014 | ~30,000-37,000 | 16,964 | ~13,000-20,000 | ~46-57% |
India EB-2's pre-2013 cohort is essentially cleared. PD 2013 sits at roughly a third pending, PD 2014 at about half. The EB-2 India queue is much larger in absolute terms (~144K to 156K PD 2010-2014 versus ~54K to 62K for EB-3 India), but the cleared rate is fundamentally driven by horizontal spillover from EB-2 Rest of World (more on that below).
The PD 2014 EB-3 India spike is real and recent (direct data, no estimation)
Watching the USCIS quarterly I-485 inventory snapshots for India EB-3 at priority date 2014:
| USCIS Report Quarter | India EB-3 PD 2014 pending | Change from prior |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-Q2 | 10,498 | baseline |
| 2025-Q3 | 10,431 | -67 |
| 2026-Q1 | 10,346 | -85 |
| 2026-Q2 | 12,147 | +1,801 (+17%) |
The +1,801 jump in 2026-Q2 coincides with EB-2 India retrogressing in the May and June 2026 bulletins. EB-2 holders whose PERM priority dates fall in 2013 to 2014 saw the EB-3 path move ahead again, filed downgrade I-140s and interfile requests, and pushed the EB-3 India PD 2014 bucket up. Over the same window, India EB-2 pending at PDs 2013 and 2014 dropped by about 1,900. The shapes match. None of this is estimated, it is direct quarter-over-quarter USCIS inventory.
The COVID-era downgrade wave is receding
Pre-COVID EB-3 India I-140 approvals averaged ~12,900 per year (FY2014-FY2019). Starting FY2021, the count spiked as EB-2 holders filed downgrade I-140s to take advantage of EB-3 India being current ahead of EB-2 India. FY2025 came in below baseline:
| Fiscal Year | EB-3 India I-140 Approvals | Excess vs ~12,900 baseline | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2018 | 12,500 | -400 | baseline range |
| FY2019 | 13,000 | +100 | baseline range |
| FY2020 | 11,000 | -1,917 | pre-wave, USCIS slowdown |
| FY2021 | 20,000 | +7,083 | Downgrade wave begins |
| FY2022 | 16,000 | +3,083 | Wave continues |
| FY2023 | 14,000 | +1,083 | wave tapering |
| FY2024 | 14,000 | +1,083 | wave tapering |
| FY2025 | 10,465 | -2,452 | wave receded below baseline |
Summing the excess over baseline across FY2021 to FY2024 gives about 12,300 downgrade I-140s. These almost all carry old PERM priority dates (a downgrade I-140 preserves the original PERM date), and they cluster in the PD 2010 to 2014 bucket. About 18 percent of who entered the EB-3 India PD 2010-2014 queue came via downgrade from EB-2.
Where the current EB-3 India pending actually sits
| PD Year | EB-3 India pending (2026-Q2) | Share of total India EB-3 pending |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 35 | 0.2% |
| 2011 | 60 | 0.4% |
| 2012 | 189 | 1.1% |
| 2013 | 4,067 | 24.4% |
| 2014 | 12,147 | 72.9% |
| Subtotal PD 2010-2014 | 16,498 | 99.0% |
| Other PDs (mostly 2015+) | 175 | 1.0% |
| Total India EB-3 pending | 16,673 | 100% |
Almost three quarters of the entire India EB-3 I-485 pending inventory is sitting at PD 2014. Clear PD 2014 and the rest is essentially nothing.
EB-2 India: the upgrade direction barely happens
EB-3 to EB-2 upgrade requires a new PERM at a higher position level. It is structurally hard, and the volume is much smaller than the downgrade flow:
| Fiscal Year | EB-2 India I-140 Approvals | Excess vs ~40,700 baseline |
|---|---|---|
| FY2014-FY2019 baseline avg | ~40,700/year | baseline |
| FY2021 | 65,000 | +24,333 |
| FY2022 | 50,000 | +9,333 |
| FY2023 | 40,000 | -667 |
| FY2025 | 40,722 | +22 |
That EB-2 spike is overwhelmingly real EB-2 demand: more H-1B holders reaching PERM eligibility, COVID-era backlog catch-up at USCIS, and the one-time effect of premium processing being rolled out to I-140 EB-2. EB-3-to-EB-2 upgrades are at most a small share of the spike, a few thousand across the entire window.
Cohort split before and after the latest approved priority date
| Category | Latest community PD | Pending at PD ≤ latest | Pending at PD > latest | Total pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| India EB-1 | April 15, 2026 | 20,884 | 0 | 20,884 |
| India EB-2 | July 1, 2014 | 19,711 | 7,604 | 27,315 |
| India EB-3 | October 1, 2013 | 3,382 | 13,291 | 16,673 |
EB-2 India's clearance engine: horizontal spillover from EB-2 Rest of World
An average roughly 18,400 EB-2 India cases cleared per year for the pre-July-2014 cohort. That rate is far above the base 7-percent-per-country cap of about 2,800 per year. The difference is horizontal spillover within EB-2: unused visas from EB-2 Rest of World redistributed to oversubscribed countries (India and China) per INA section 203(b)(2)(C).
The State Department's FY2025 numbers make it concrete. EB-2 worldwide consular issuance was 12,786, of which EB-2 Rest of World took 11,556 (90 percent) and EB-2 India took only 129. Most EB-2 India visas come through Adjustment of Status, fed by the ROW underutilization. The result is an effective EB-2 India annual visa rate well above 15,000 per year over the past decade.
Without that horizontal flow, the roughly 117,000 to 129,000 EB-2 India cases that cleared at PDs through mid-2014 simply would not have moved. At base 2,800 per year, the pre-July-2014 cohort would have taken closer to 50 to 60 years to clear instead of the 12 years it actually took. Every time someone says "EB-2 India is moving faster than EB-3 India lately," that is the underlying reason: unused EB-2 worldwide capacity flows into India's pile. EB-3 India does not get the same boost because EB-3 Rest of World is itself oversubscribed (Philippines and ROW EB-3 demand keeps EB-3 worldwide near its cap).
Why EB-3 India might still advance
- The original EB-3 India cohort at PD 2010-2014 is small. About 54,000 to 62,000 PERM filings over a five-year window, versus the EB-2 India equivalent of roughly 144,000 to 156,000 over the same period. EB-3 demand was always a fraction of EB-2 demand for India. Today's pending inventory looks heavy because of downgrade arrivals, not because the underlying EB-3 cohort was ever that big.
- The downgrade wave is receding. FY2025 EB-3 India I-140 approvals (10,465) fell below the 12,900 baseline. New downgrade filings are slowing as EB-2 holders who wanted to downgrade have mostly done so already.
- Almost the entire remaining queue is at one priority date (PD 2014). 12,147 of the 16,498 pending at PD 2010-2014. EB-3 India's effective annual visa allocation under current spillover patterns is in the 5,000 to 9,000 range. At those rates, the PD 2014 bucket clears in roughly 1.5 to 2.5 years if no new downgrade pile-on occurs.
The other side: what could stall EB-3 India advancement
- EB-2 India retrogression triggers more downgrades. The 2026-Q2 spike of +1,801 is exhibit A. As long as EB-2 India remains volatile, the EB-3 India PD 2014 bucket keeps getting refilled.
- EB-3 India does not get the same horizontal spillover EB-2 India gets. EB-3 worldwide is itself oversubscribed (Philippines and ROW EB-3 demand keeps EB-3 worldwide near its cap). Unlike EB-2 where Rest of World chronically underutilizes its share, EB-3 India does not get a meaningful boost from ROW underutilization.
What this means for someone tracking their own date
- If you are EB-3 India at PD 2014, you are in the bucket that has to clear before EB-3 advances. 12,147 cases ahead of you (including some who interfiled in from EB-2 in the last few quarters). At roughly 5,000 to 9,000 per year clearance, this bucket is 1.5 to 2.5 years of work.
- If you are EB-2 India FY2012-FY2014 considering a downgrade, thousands have already done it. The PD 2014 EB-3 bucket is now denser than the original FY2014 EB-3 demand. A downgrade today competes with everyone who downgraded in 2020 to 2024 and is still waiting.
- If you are EB-1 India, processing near-current sits on a knife's edge. The June 2026 retrogression already demonstrated that. The 20,900 currently pending at PD ≤ April 2026 is essentially the entire current pool.
For a personalized "demand ahead of your PD" figure that uses era-specific lag and conversion rates per (country, category, era), the live Priority Date Estimator on GreenCardClock computes that against current USCIS quarterly data. The "I-140 Backlog & True Demand" panel on that page shows your category-level cohort, your demand ahead, and a What-If Simulator with four sliders (real demand rate, cross-filing overlap, dependents per applicant, yearly visa supply) so you can stress-test the assumptions.
Sources
- U.S. Department of State, employment-based visa bulletin May 2026 and June 2026 (travel.state.gov)
- USCIS Employment-Based I-485 Inventory reports, quarterly (2025-Q2 through 2026-Q2)
- USCIS I-140 Quarterly Reports and Receipts/Approvals by Class and Country (FY2009 to FY2025)
- USCIS Historic Processing Times tool (FY2012 to FY2022 coverage)
- U.S. Department of State Annual Report of the Visa Office, FY2024 Table V (consular issuances)
- April 2018 FOIA release: India EB-2 approved waiting estimate of approximately 216,684
- Congressional Research Service Report R46291 (November 2019): India EB-2 approved waiting estimate of approximately 568,414
- Independent immigration policy research (2023): India EB-2 approved waiting estimate of approximately 750,000
- AILA 2013 conference reporting: approximately 42 percent PERM audit rate, 9 to 10 month audit-added processing
- USCIS premium processing service history: I-140 premium processing reinstated June 29, 2009, available throughout 2010-2014
- GreenCardClock community timelines database, May 17, 2026 snapshot. Anonymized self-reported milestones.
- GreenCardClock Priority Date Estimator: https://greencardclock.com/priority-date
Not legal advice. Individual cases vary based on USCIS adjudication factors that are not published. Estimates are based on historical trends and current pending inventory. They are not guarantees. Per-PD-year cohort numbers carry roughly ±25 percent uncertainty due to the unknown distribution of PERM-to-I-140-approval lag within annual I-140 approval counts.