EB-2 India in FY2026: How Many Visas We Estimated, the Just-Announced Limit, and What FY2027 Could Bring

For fiscal year 2026, our estimate was that EB-2 India would have roughly 9,300 immigrant visas available, counting consular processing and adjustment of status together. On May 22, 2026, the State Department announced that India EB-2 has now used all of its available FY2026 visas, so the category is unavailable for the rest of the fiscal year and resets on October 1, 2026. This post lays out how we arrive at that ~9,300 figure, the wider India and China picture, how much pending demand is actually duplicate, and what FY2027 could bring, including the wildcard of how the courts treat the new adjustment-of-status guidance. Figures are estimates from public data and our Priority Date Estimator, not guarantees, and nothing here is legal advice.

Sources: DOS announcement on the India EB-2 per-country limit (May 22, 2026), the June 2026 Visa Bulletin and DOS FY2026 Annual Numerical Limits (May 19, 2026), INA Sections 201 to 203, the USCIS adjustment-of-status policy memorandum (May 22, 2026), and the spokesman statement as reported by CBS News. Not legal advice.

1. The estimate, and the limit-reached announcement

The State Department cited the statutory limits directly. INA 203(b)(2) caps EB-2 at 28.6 percent of the worldwide employment-based total. INA 202(a)(2) limits any single country to 7 percent of the combined employment and family total, prorated across categories under INA 202(e). Once a country reaches that 7 percent ceiling in a category, no more numbers can be issued in it for the rest of the year. India hit that ceiling for EB-2 in FY2026.

What this means in practice for EB-2 India:

• No new EB-2 India green cards will be issued for the rest of FY2026, whether through consular processing or adjustment of status. A pending I-485 stays pending; it cannot be approved without an available visa number.
• The monthly bulletin date is effectively moot for the remainder of FY2026; the category is unavailable regardless of the listed cutoff.
• The reset on October 1 reopens issuance, but the FY2027 starting position is not guaranteed to be where the FY2026 date left off.

2. How we get to ~9,300, and the India and China breakdown

"Spillover" is usually quoted as one number, but it is really a stack of separate sources, each with its own rules. The base floor and family lift are fixed and the same across countries; horizontal redistribution is the swing factor and the least certain line. Vertical cascade (unused EB-1 flowing down to EB-2 then EB-3) is about zero this year because EB-1 demand is strong enough to consume its own allocation. Exhausting a per-country limit in May, months before the September 30 fiscal-year end, is a sign of an unusually large supply year, not a small one: more numbers available means faster consumption.

*India EB-2 reached its FY2026 per-country limit on May 22, 2026. The ~9,300 shown is the estimated full-year allocation, now fully issued; the category is unavailable until the October 1, 2026 reset. The June 2026 bulletin also retrogressed India EB-1 (to December 15, 2022) and warned that EB-1 could likewise reach its limit before the fiscal year ends.

For EB-2 India, the statutory floor is the base (~2,800) plus this year's family lift (~920), about 3,700 in total, which is India's guaranteed 7 percent share. The larger piece, horizontal redistribution (~5,540), is extra: India receives it only because Rest-of-World was undersubscribed, so unused numbers flow to oversubscribed countries under INA 202(a)(5). Floor plus redistribution is how we reach roughly 9,300. Treat the total as our estimate, since DOS does not publish a per-country, per-category count: the 7 percent floor is the firm number, and the redistribution is the softer part. That same large redistribution, driven by travel bans, the immigrant-visa freeze, and consulate closures, is why India EB-2 ran out early.

3. Why the date is still in 2013 even after ~9,300 numbers

Supply sets how fast a line moves; the backlog sets where the date is. Even after issuing an estimated 9,300 numbers, EB-2 India ended FY2026 movement back in 2013 because the backlog ahead is far larger:

• The backlog dwarfs the annual supply. Roughly 27,000 I-485s are already on file ahead of a 2015 priority date, plus a much larger pool of approved I-140 holders who cannot file yet. At about 9,300 a year, the date advances on the order of a year per year, then stops when the annual limit is hit.
• Spillover speeds the crawl, it cannot teleport the date. A few thousand extra numbers help, but they are small next to demand accumulated over more than a decade.
• EB-3 India is ahead (December 2013 versus EB-2's pre-exhaustion September 2013) because its pile of pre-2014 cases is smaller, roughly 16,700 versus about 27,300. That gap is exactly why some EB-2 India applicants interfile, or downgrade, to EB-3.

One reassurance for anyone worried the system is rejecting cases: it is not. India has roughly 66,700 employment-based I-485s already on file (about 21,900 EB-1, 27,700 EB-2, and 17,100 EB-3 as of January 2026), against a combined FY2026 supply near 30,800. Supply is less than half the pending pile, so the binding constraint is the number of visas, not a shortage of eligible applicants and not denials. The dates simply stop where the year's numbers run out, and the cases behind them wait for the next year.

Here is the same picture per India category: the pending pile against this year's supply, and how far the FY2026 numbers actually reached before the limits bound.

Pending counts are USCIS January 2026 EB I-485 inventory; "how far reached" is the high-water Final Action Date this fiscal year before retrogression. The pending figures are raw, before the cross-filing adjustment discussed next.

Every row tells the same story: this year's numbers cleared a slice of the pending pile, the date climbed to a high-water mark, and then it either retrogressed (EB-1 and EB-2) or held (EB-3) as the per-country limit came into reach. EB-2 reached that limit first, which is why it is the one now fully unavailable.

4. How much of the pending demand is real

Headline pending counts overstate true demand because of cross-filing, or interfiling. When EB-3 India moved ahead of EB-2 during 2020 to 2022, many applicants filed in both categories. National Interest Waiver filers often also hold an employer-sponsored EB-2 petition, and applicants who later qualify for EB-1 leave an unused EB-2 petition behind. By various estimates, roughly a third to a half of the petitions filed in that window are duplicates across categories. After removing them, true unique demand is meaningfully smaller than the raw numbers suggest. A figure like "27,000 cases ahead" is not 27,000 different people who will each consume a visa. Our estimates adjust for this overlap.

5. The new USCIS adjustment statement

On May 22, 2026, USCIS issued a policy memorandum describing adjustment of status as a discretionary measure. USCIS spokesman Zach Kahler framed it publicly in a statement reported by CBS News:

"After years of ignoring the intent of Congress in the adjustment of status application, USCIS is merely restating and reasserting that intent. While we work to operationalize this, people who present applications that provide an economic benefit or otherwise are in the national interest will likely be able to continue on their current path while others may be asked to apply abroad depending on individualized circumstances."

Read plainly, the pivot is between applications that "provide an economic benefit or otherwise are in the national interest," which "will likely be able to continue on their current path," and "others," who "may be asked to apply abroad depending on individualized circumstances." Directionally, employment-based categories rest on jobs, skills, and investment, the clearest fit for an "economic benefit" framing, so EB applicants adjusting status here are the most likely to keep their I-485 on its current path once numbers are available again. Family-based categories and immediate relatives rest on family unity, so they are the more likely "others" who could be steered toward consular processing abroad.

Three caveats keep this from being overstated:

• It is discretionary, not a rule. "Individualized circumstances" signals case-by-case treatment, not a clean line between categories.
• The key terms are undefined. "Economic benefit" and "national interest" are not defined, and USCIS says it is still working to "operationalize this."
• It is new and contested. The policy is reportedly drawing legal challenges, so its final scope may be shaped by how USCIS implements it and how the courts respond.

Temporary nonimmigrant visas such as H-1B, L, F, and O are a separate world and are not green cards. This is general background, not a prediction about any individual case.

6. FY2026 to FY2027: the reset, and the court wildcard

The FY2026 limits reset on October 1, 2026. Our current projection for FY2027, treating the present disruptions (the regional conflict, the travel and immigrant-visa restrictions, the public-charge processing freeze, and consular and PERM slowdowns) as continuing, looks like this. These carry wide uncertainty: the FY2027 numerical limits are not published until around October, so treat them as directional, not fixed.

Our engine already projects FY2026 family usage at roughly 145,000 of the 226,000 allocation, which leaves about 81,000 to fall up into the FY2027 pool. The biggest swing factor is whether these disruptions continue. If consular demand abroad recovers, the family fall-up and the Rest-of-World redistribution both shrink. If they persist or deepen, and especially if the new adjustment-of-status memo holds and pushes more family cases into the already disrupted consular channel, the fall-up could climb toward or past 90,000, though most of that effect would land in FY2028 since FY2027's fall-up is largely set by family usage that predates the memo. Confidence on the FY2027 figure is low; DOS publishes the actual limits around October.

The wildcard is the legal status of the new adjustment-of-status guidance. Policies of this kind often draw litigation. As a scenario rather than a prediction: if a court were to block or narrow the guidance, adjustment of status would continue without the added friction, and the conditions that produced this year's large redistribution (low consular demand abroad) could persist. That combination would tend to keep EB-2 India moving at a similar or faster pace once FY2027 numbers become available, and could let USCIS clear eligible pending I-485s quickly when the category reopens on October 1. If instead the guidance stands and shifts more applicants to consular processing abroad, consular demand could rise and the redistribution that helped India this year could shrink. The outcome depends on litigation and on how USCIS operationalizes the policy, so both are possibilities to watch rather than forecasts. For a personalized range against the current bulletin, use the Priority Date Estimator.

7. Where the EB-2 India date could land in FY2027

The practical question everyone asks is: once the category reopens on October 1, 2026, how far could the EB-2 India date actually move during FY2027? No one can promise a date, and the FY2027 numerical limits are not published until around October, so everything in this section is a scenario built from two moving inputs, how many numbers EB-2 India is likely to receive, and how much real demand sits ahead in the line. Both carry wide uncertainty and we flag our confidence here as low.

The supply side: an estimated 10,000 to 12,000 numbers

FY2026 gave EB-2 India an estimated ~9,300 numbers. For FY2027 we estimate modestly more, on the order of 10,000 to 12,000, with a wider band of roughly 8,000 in a conservative case and 13,000 in an optimistic one. The growth comes from the larger pool. If the family-to-employment fall-up lands near the ~81,000 we project, the worldwide EB pool rises to about 221,000, and India's guaranteed 7 percent floor for EB-2 rises with it, from about 3,700 toward roughly 4,400. Rest-of-World redistribution, the larger and softer piece, is assumed to stay near its FY2026 level rather than grow, because it is capped by how many cases India and China can actually adjudicate. That ceiling is the reason we land below the ~15,000 some readers have estimated: the floor lift is real, but the redistribution piece does not scale up without limit.

The demand side: the line ahead is entirely 2014 and earlier

Here is the part that surprises people. In the latest USCIS pending I-485 inventory (the early-2026 quarterly snapshot), every EB-2 India case already on file carries a priority date in 2014 or earlier. There is no 2015 cohort in the adjustment-of-status line yet, because EB-2 India applicants with 2015 dates have not been allowed to file I-485: the Dates for Filing chart has not reached them. Those 2015 cases exist as approved I-140 petitions waiting in the wings, not as pending green-card applications competing for a number today. So the often-cited "about 2,000 a month in early 2015" is real demand, but it is upstream demand, not part of the pending pile that this year's numbers actually clear.

The pending pile, before the cross-filing adjustment, stacks up like this:

Source: USCIS pending I-485 inventory by priority date, early-2026 quarterly snapshot. These are raw counts, before the cross-filing adjustment described in section 4.

After removing cross-filed duplicates (roughly a third to a half of the cases from the 2020 to 2022 filing window, as discussed in section 4), true unique demand through the end of 2014 is meaningfully smaller, on the order of 14,000 to 18,000 consuming cases, plus a separate slice of consular applicants at the same priority dates who draw from the same pool of numbers.

Putting them together

FY2026's ~9,300 numbers roughly cleared the de-duplicated demand up through about mid-2014, which is why the date reached about July 2014 at its high-water mark before the limit bound and it retrogressed. Entering FY2027 with a fresh ~10,000 to 12,000 numbers, the arithmetic suggests those numbers are enough to work through most of the remaining 2014 demand and approach the 2014-to-2015 boundary, provided the duplicate share is as high as we estimate and consular demand abroad stays low.

Two things temper a straight-line read to "January 2015 in the October bulletin":

• October usually opens cautiously, not at full stretch. The State Department just advanced EB-2 India to about July 2014, over-consumed, and had to retrogress to September 2013 before the category went unavailable. After a year like that, the safer move is to reopen around the prior high-water area and advance through the year as numbers actually flow, rather than leap straight to 2015 in month one and risk a repeat early exhaustion.
• Filing dates can run ahead of final action dates. The Dates for Filing chart governs who may file I-485, not who receives a number, so it can be more generous. It is plausible the filing date reaches early-to-mid 2015 during FY2027 even while the final action date is still working through 2014. That is exactly what would let the 2015 cohort finally file and become the demand that shapes FY2028.

Our scenarios for FY2027, all directional and low confidence:

So the instinct that the date keeps moving is directionally right: across FY2027, EB-2 India could advance through late 2014 and, in the optimistic case, reach into early 2015. We would not bank on a single October jump to January 2015, though. The more likely shape is a cautious October open followed by month-by-month advancement, with the filing date leading the way into 2015.

What would sharpen this estimate

The single biggest update is close. The next USCIS quarterly I-485 inventory, the one covering the window that includes this spring's surge of issuances and expected around June 2026, will show how much of the 2013 and 2014 pile actually drained when EB-2 India consumed its FY2026 numbers. The snapshot used above predates that surge, so it still reflects the pre-clearance pile. Once the post-clearance inventory is published, we will know how much real demand is left below the 2014-to-2015 line and we will revise these scenarios accordingly. For a personalized range against the current bulletin, in both green-card-date and filing-date modes, use the Priority Date Estimator.

8. What this means if you are in the EB-2 India queue

• Pending I-485, priority date before the line: your case is not denied. It waits for an available visa number, which for EB-2 India now means the October 1 reset.
• Recently approved (a 2014-era priority date): you were cleared just before the category closed for the year.
• Priority date 2015 or later: the wait continues. How far the date moves next depends on the size of the FY2027 pool and whether the consular disruptions persist.
• Keep your foundation current: maintain valid underlying status and an approved I-140, so you can file or be adjudicated quickly when numbers reopen on October 1.
• The adjustment-of-status memo is a separate question from the numbers running out. Watch for official USCIS guidance that defines how it applies in practice.

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All visa figures are estimates from publicly available data and our Priority Date Estimator. Per-country supply leans on modeled adjudication-rate inputs that will firm up as USCIS publishes quarterly approval data, so treat the per-category totals as estimates rather than exact counts. Actual allocations depend on demand across all categories and on Department of State decisions, and can change without notice. This article is informational only and is not legal advice. For case-specific guidance, consult a licensed immigration attorney.