Will Green Card Numbers Go Unused in FY2026 and FY2027?

March 23, 202610 min read

One of the most discussed topics in the EB green card community right now: will all available visa numbers be utilized before the fiscal year ends? If not, those numbers are permanently lost — they don't carry over.

This analysis is based on publicly available data from the Department of State (DOS), USCIS, federal workforce reports, and court filings. It is not legal advice.

How Visa Numbers Go Unused

Key facts about the system:

A visa number is only "used" at the moment of final I-485 approval (or immigrant visa issuance at a consulate) — not at filing, interview, or RFE
There is no legal deadline requiring USCIS to process cases within a fiscal year
If not enough cases are approved by September 30, those visa numbers are permanently lost
Unlike family-based (FB) to employment-based (EB) spillover, unused EB numbers do NOT carry over to the next fiscal year
Only Congress can "recapture" unused numbers through legislation

Historical Visa Number Utilization

Fiscal Year	EB Pool	Outcome
FY2020	~140K	~122K FB numbers went unused due to COVID consulate closures
FY2021	~262K (inflated by FB spillover)	~65,000 EB numbers went unused due to processing capacity constraints
FY2022	~281K	Near-full utilization — historic processing effort following Madhavan litigation
FY2023	~197K	Near-full utilization
FY2024	~161K	All EB-1/2/3 exhausted
FY2025	~150K	All EB-1/2/3 exhausted by September

FY2021 is a notable example: approximately 262K EB numbers were available thanks to COVID-era FB spillover, and roughly 65,000 remained unutilized due to the volume exceeding processing capacity within the fiscal year.

Factors Affecting Processing Capacity in 2026

Multiple publicly reported factors may influence USCIS processing capacity:

Funding model — USCIS is approximately 96% fee-funded, making it vulnerable to application volume drops
Federal hiring freeze — Executive order froze most vacant federal civilian positions (January 2025). A planned hiring of ~3,800 new adjudicators was affected
Staffing changes — Reports indicate some changes in USCIS staffing levels in early 2025
Contractor workforce — Reports suggest some service center contractors were affected, potentially impacting case preparation timelines
Fee revenue factors — Changes in application volumes may influence the fee-funded budget

Note: These figures come from public news reports and may not reflect the current state. USCIS has not published official workforce reduction numbers.

FY2026 Risk Assessment: Moderate

Based on publicly available data and historical patterns:

Pool size: Estimated ~145K — similar to FY2025's ~150K which was fully utilized
AOS pipeline: DOS has been advancing Dates for Filing (DFF) aggressively, building a pipeline of filed I-485s
Consular issuance: Some reduction due to travel restrictions, but domestic AOS continues
Historical comparison: FY2024 and FY2025 both achieved full utilization with similar pool sizes

The manageable pool size and DOS's proactive bulletin strategy suggest FY2026 numbers may be largely utilized, though some numbers may remain unutilized depending on processing capacity.

FY2027 Risk Assessment: Higher Concern

FY2027 may see a significantly larger EB pool due to projected FB→EB spillover:

Estimated pool size: ~235K (140K base + ~95K projected FB spillover) — this is in the range of FY2021's ~262K
Processing capacity: Adjudicating 235K cases within a fiscal year would require significant capacity
FY2021 comparison: A similar spillover-inflated pool resulted in ~65K numbers going unused

Whether FY2027 repeats FY2021's outcome or FY2022's success may depend on processing capacity and other factors at that time.

Department of State Strategy for Visa Number Utilization

The Department of State's Visa Office, led by Charles Oppenheim, appears to be taking a proactive approach:

Advancing DFF aggressively — getting more I-485 applications filed NOW to build a pipeline of approvable cases
Keeping FAD behind DFF — controlling actual approval flow rate while building inventory
"September surge" preparation — building enough pending cases that USCIS can push approvals in Q4 (July–September)

This is why you may see DFF dates advance faster than FAD dates — DOS wants people to file (creating inventory) even before cases can be finally approved.

Legal Pressure — Lawsuits as a Check

Historically, litigation has played a role in visa number utilization outcomes:

Madhavan v. Jaddou — Filed following FY2021, widely cited in connection with the FY2022 processing push (281K cases, near-full utilization)
Chakrabarti v. USCIS — Filed by 125+ plaintiffs regarding FY2021 unutilized numbers
IMMpact litigation — Ongoing cases related to processing timelines

These cases are part of the public record. Similar litigation may be anticipated if significant numbers of visas go unutilized in future fiscal years.

The September Surge — Will It Be Enough?

USCIS historically pushes hard in the final quarter (July–September) to use remaining numbers:

FY2022: ~281K cases processed, near-full utilization
FY2024-2025: All EB categories exhausted by September
FY2026: The surge may be effective if the pool stays around 145K
FY2027: A 235K pool would require processing capacity similar to FY2022 levels

What This Means for Applicants

File I-485 as soon as DFF reaches your priority date — once pending, you get EAD/AP benefits regardless of final approval timing
Having a pending I-485 puts you in the approval pipeline for the September surge
Monitor the Visa Bulletin monthly for date movements
Use our Priority Date Estimator to track when your date may become current
Consider consulting an immigration attorney about timing strategy for your specific case

Data Sources

This analysis draws from publicly available information including: Department of State Visa Bulletin archives, USCIS Ombudsman annual reports, Congressional Research Service reports on immigration processing, federal court filings (PACER), and news reporting from Reuters, Bloomberg Law, and immigration-focused outlets.

This article is for informational and educational purposes only, based on publicly available data and historical analysis. It does not constitute legal advice. Projections are estimates based on historical patterns and publicly reported information — actual outcomes may differ. Consult a qualified immigration attorney for guidance specific to your situation.