PERM Delays, EB-2 ROW Demand, and What It Means for EB-2 India in FY2026
The April 2026 Visa Bulletin brought one of the largest single-month jumps in EB-2 India history: the Final Action Date advanced 10 months, from September 15, 2013 to July 15, 2014. The Dates for Filing moved to January 15, 2015. Meanwhile, EB-2 Rest of World (ROW) went fully Current.
What is driving this? A combination of structural PERM processing delays, travel bans reducing consular demand, and the mechanics of horizontal spillover under INA §202(a)(5). This analysis uses real USCIS inventory data, DOL processing times, and publicly reported case timelines to explain what is happening and what may come next.
Data sourced from USCIS published I-485 inventory reports, DOL FLAG processing times, and travel.state.gov visa bulletins. All figures are estimates based on publicly available government data. This is not legal advice.
1. PERM Processing Is Running 17 Months Behind
As of March 2026, the Department of Labor is processing PERM applications at the following pace:
| Queue | Currently Processing | Wait Time |
|---|---|---|
| Analyst Review | Nov 2024 filings | ~17 months |
| Audit Review | Jun 2025 filings | ~9 months |
Source: DOL FLAG processing times (flag.dol.gov), March 2026
This means a PERM application filed in January 2025 will not receive a decision until approximately mid-to-late 2026. After PERM approval, the applicant still needs to file an I-140 petition (4-6 months standard, or 15 business days with premium processing), and only then can file I-485 if a visa number is available.
The total pipeline from PERM filing to I-485 eligibility now spans roughly 2 to 3 years.
2. The EB-2 ROW I-485 Pipeline Shows a Clear Drop-Off
The USCIS Pending EB I-485 Inventory (published March 2026, data as of January 2, 2026) shows the following pending EB-2 ROW I-485 cases by priority date year:
| Priority Date Year | Pending I-485 Cases |
|---|---|
| 2016-2021 | 1,442 |
| 2022 | 2,011 |
| 2023 | 16,527 |
| 2024 (Jan-Jun) | 12,197 |
| 2024 (Jul-Oct) | 637 |
| 2025 | 0 |
| Total | 32,814 |
Source: USCIS Pending EB I-485 Inventory, January 2, 2026
The drop-off after July 2024 is significant. Only 637 pending I-485 cases have priority dates between July and October 2024. Zero cases have a 2025 priority date.
This pattern aligns with the PERM backlog. Applications filed after approximately mid-2023 would have been approved in late 2024 or early 2025, giving those applicants time to file I-140 and then I-485 by the January 2026 inventory snapshot. But applications filed after mid-2024 are still waiting for PERM approval, which is why there are almost no I-485 filings with priority dates after July 2024.
A real-world example posted on Reddit (April 1, 2026): an EB-2 ROW applicant reported their full timeline. PERM filed November 28, 2023. Approved April 10, 2025 (16.5 months). I-140 approved September 2025. I-485 approved April 1, 2026. Total time from PERM filing to green card: approximately 28 months.
3. EB-2 ROW Is Now Fully Current
The April 2026 Visa Bulletin shows EB-2 ROW as "Current" for both Final Action Dates and Dates for Filing. This means the Department of State has determined that current ROW demand does not exceed the available visa numbers.
For comparison, EB-2 ROW was at October 15, 2024 in the March 2026 bulletin and briefly retrogressed in August 2025 before recovering. The move to Current signals that existing ROW demand is being satisfied.
4. How Horizontal Spillover Works (INA §202(a)(5))
Under U.S. immigration law, each employment-based preference category receives a fixed annual allocation. EB-2 receives approximately 40,040 visa numbers per year (28.6% of the 140,000 total EB allocation).
When a country like ROW does not use all available visa numbers in a given category, those unused numbers "spill horizontally" to the most oversubscribed countries in the same preference category. For EB-2, this means unused ROW numbers flow primarily to India, then China.
Several factors are currently reducing ROW EB-2 visa consumption:
- PERM delays: The 17-month processing backlog means fewer new applicants are entering the I-485 queue
- Travel bans: Proclamations 10949 and 10998 have suspended or restricted immigrant visa issuance for nationals of approximately 39 countries, reducing consular processing for ROW applicants abroad
- IV processing freeze: Enhanced public charge screening has paused or slowed processing at consular posts in 75 countries
- MENA conflict: Embassy closures and reduced consular operations in 11 countries in the Middle East and North Africa region
5. What Does This Mean for EB-2 India?
The EB-2 India I-485 inventory (January 2, 2026) shows the following pending cases:
| Priority Date | Pending I-485 | Status (Apr 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| 2005-2011 | 382 | Available (before FAD) |
| 2012 | 420 | Available (before FAD) |
| Jan-Dec 2013 | 9,549 | Available (before FAD) |
| Jan-Jul 2014 | 9,360 | Available (at/before FAD Jul 15) |
| Aug 2014 | 1,565 | Next in line |
| Sep 2014 | 1,874 | Next in line |
| Oct 2014 | 2,194 | Next in line |
| Nov 2014 | 1,971 | Next in line |
| Dec 2014 | 0 | No pending cases |
| 2015+ | 0 | No pending cases in inventory |
Source: USCIS Pending EB I-485 Inventory, January 2, 2026. Total pending EB-2 India: 27,315 cases.
Key observation: There are approximately 19,711 pending EB-2 India I-485 cases with priority dates at or before the current Final Action Date of July 15, 2014. An additional 7,604 cases have priority dates between August and November 2014. After November 2014, there are zero pending I-485 cases in the USCIS inventory.
This gap in the inventory is significant. If the Final Action Date advances past November 2014, there would be no pending cases to process until a new cohort appears at a later priority date. This could result in a larger-than-usual forward jump in the Final Action Date.
6. The Dates for Filing Implications
The current Dates for Filing chart shows EB-2 India at January 15, 2015. Since the pending inventory shows zero cases with December 2014 or 2015 priority dates, the DFF may continue advancing as DOS looks to keep the filing pipeline active.
If USCIS Field Offices accept I-485 filings based on the DFF (which USCIS announces monthly), applicants with later priority dates could begin filing. However, actual visa number assignment still depends on the Final Action Date.
The forward movement in DFF would be a positive signal for applicants with priority dates in the 2015-2016 range, as it would allow them to file I-485 and obtain EAD/AP benefits while waiting for final adjudication.
7. Will This Pattern Continue in FY2027?
Several factors suggest the structural conditions for increased spillover could persist into FY2027 (October 2026 onward):
- PERM pipeline remains constrained: Applications filed in 2025 and early 2026 will not be approved until mid-to-late 2027 at the earliest, meaning the gap in new ROW EB-2 I-485 filings may widen further
- Family-based spillover: Under INA §201(d), unused family-sponsored visa numbers carry over to the employment-based categories in the following fiscal year. With consular processing significantly reduced by the travel bans, analysts have projected that unused family-based visas could spill into the EB pool in FY2027, potentially increasing the total EB allocation beyond the standard 140,000
- Travel bans remain in effect: Unless rescinded, the proclamations reducing consular processing will continue to depress both family-based and employment-based consular issuance
However, there are important uncertainties:
- DOS does not publish mid-year spillover figures. The exact number of unused ROW visas is not known until the fiscal year ends.
- Policy changes, including potential rescission of travel bans or changes to PERM processing priorities, could alter the trajectory
- A surge of new I-485 filings (for example, from applicants with recently approved I-140s) could absorb available numbers
- Retrogression is always possible if USCIS advances dates too aggressively and demand exceeds available supply
8. EB-2 ROW Monthly Consular Issuance (FY2025)
For context, here is the monthly EB-2 ROW consular visa issuance data from FY2025 (the most recent fiscal year with published data):
| Month | ROW EB-2 Visas | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2024 | 1,799 | 1,799 |
| Nov 2024 | 621 | 2,420 |
| Dec 2024 | 621 | 3,041 |
| Jan 2025 | 643 | 3,684 |
| Feb 2025 | 803 | 4,487 |
| Mar 2025 | 780 | 5,267 |
| Apr 2025 | 1,551 | 6,818 |
| May 2025 | 1,354 | 8,172 |
| Jun 2025 (bans take effect) | 1,090 | 9,262 |
| Jul 2025 | 1,171 | 10,433 |
| Aug 2025 | 1,074 | 11,507 |
Source: Department of State Monthly Immigrant Visa Issuance Statistics (travel.state.gov). Consular issuance only; does not include Adjustment of Status (I-485) approvals processed domestically by USCIS. September 2025 data not yet published.
Total EB-2 consular issuance across all countries in FY2025 (11 months): 12,662 visas, of which ROW accounted for 11,507 (91%). India EB-2 consular issuance was only 128 visas during the same period, as the vast majority of India EB-2 cases are processed through Adjustment of Status (I-485) within the United States.
9. Allocation vs Queue: Can the Numbers Work in FY2026?
A common question: if EB-2 ROW has 33,061 pending cases and EB-2 India has 19,711 cases available, doesn't the total demand exceed the annual supply?
Here is the full allocation math:
| Country | April 2026 FAD | AOS Available | Consular (est.) | Total Demand |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest of World | Current | 32,814 | ~12,500 | ~45,300 |
| India | Jul 15, 2014 | 19,711 | ~140 | ~19,850 |
| China | Sep 1, 2021 | 5,209 | ~845 | ~6,050 |
| Mexico + Philippines | Current | 2,170 | ~275 | ~2,450 |
| Total | 59,904 | ~13,760 | ~73,660 |
AOS figures from USCIS I-485 Inventory PD Distribution, January 2026. Consular estimates annualized from FY2025 issuance data (travel.state.gov). Totals are approximate.
Annual EB-2 pool: approximately 50,000 (40,040 base allocation + estimated 10,000 FB spillover from FY2025).
Total demand made available (~73,660) exceeds the annual supply (~50,000) by a significant margin. This is intentional. DOS routinely over-allocates because not all available cases will be adjudicated within the fiscal year. USCIS has a finite number of officers and processing capacity. Cases get delayed by RFEs, background checks, interview scheduling, and abandonment. Some applicants switch categories (EB-3 to EB-2 or vice versa), withdraw, or leave the country.
Historical inventory data shows USCIS processes EB-2 cases at roughly the following rates:
- ROW: approximately 570 AOS cases per month (based on Jan 2025 to Oct 2025 inventory decline of 5,143 over 9 months, before the new filing wave)
- India: approximately 300 to 500 net cases per month (based on Oct 2025 to Jan 2026 decline of 664 over 3 months, plus new filings offsetting gross approvals)
At these rates, USCIS would process roughly 6,800 ROW cases and 3,600 to 6,000 India cases per year through AOS alone. Combined with consular issuance, total EB-2 usage would be well under 50,000, leaving room for both ROW and India to receive visa numbers simultaneously.
The risk: If USCIS processing speeds up unexpectedly (for example, during the August-September end-of-fiscal-year push), total demand could exceed available numbers, and DOS would retrogress dates. This is the same dynamic that has caused retrogression in past years.
The PERM delay factor in FY2026 vs FY2027: The 33K ROW filing wave represents the last batch of PERMs approved from 2023-2024. Behind them, the pipeline is empty (zero 2025 PDs). In FY2026, DOS must balance this existing ROW demand against India. In FY2027, the ROW pipeline stays empty even longer, AND family-based spillover (projected 60,000 to 95,000 additional EB visas) significantly expands the total pool. The PERM delay benefit is real in both years but substantially larger in FY2027.
10. Why 33K ROW Pending Does Not Mean 33K Visas Consumed
A key question readers have raised: if EB-2 ROW has 33,061 pending I-485 cases and is Current, why would DOS advance EB-2 India dates? The answer lies in understanding which ROW countries are currently affected by processing disruptions and how that reduces actual throughput.
Active Disruptions (as of April 2026)
| Disruption | Countries Affected | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Travel Ban (Full Suspension) | 19 | Immigrant visa issuance suspended |
| Travel Ban (Partial Suspension) | 20 | Immigrant visa issuance restricted |
| IV Processing Freeze (Public Charge) | 75 | Consular immigrant visa processing paused |
| MENA Conflict Embassy Closures | 11 | Consular operations reduced or suspended |
| Enhanced Social Media Vetting | All | Processing delays for both consular and AOS |
EB-2 ROW Source Countries: Disruption Status
| Country | Status | Disruption Details |
|---|---|---|
| South Korea | Clear | Operating normally |
| Japan | Clear | Operating normally |
| United Kingdom | Clear | Operating normally |
| Canada | Clear | Operating normally |
| Germany | Clear | Operating normally |
| France | Clear | Operating normally |
| Australia | Clear | Operating normally |
| Turkey | Clear | Operating normally |
| Taiwan | Clear | Operating normally |
| Singapore | Clear | Operating normally |
| Pakistan | Frozen | IV freeze + travel ban |
| Bangladesh | Frozen | IV freeze + travel ban |
| Nepal | Frozen | IV freeze |
| Nigeria | Frozen | IV freeze + partial ban |
| Brazil | Frozen | IV freeze |
| Colombia | Frozen | IV freeze |
| Iran | Frozen | IV freeze + full suspension |
| Russia | Frozen | IV freeze |
| Egypt | Frozen | IV freeze |
| Israel | Disrupted | MENA conflict, embassy reduced |
| Iraq | Frozen + MENA | IV freeze + MENA conflict |
| Lebanon | Frozen + MENA | IV freeze + MENA conflict |
| Jordan | Frozen + MENA | IV freeze + MENA conflict |
| Saudi Arabia | Disrupted | MENA conflict, embassy reduced |
| UAE | Disrupted | MENA conflict, embassy reduced |
| Kuwait | Frozen + MENA | IV freeze + MENA conflict |
Source: Presidential Proclamations 10949 and 10998, State Department IV processing freeze (January 2026), MENA conflict embassy status. Disruption status reflects consular immigrant visa processing. AOS inside the US is not directly frozen by these measures but may experience delays from enhanced vetting.
Estimated EB-2 FY2026 Throughput by Country Group
According to the USCIS H-1B Characteristics Report for FY2024, India accounts for 71% and China for 12% of all H-1B approvals. The remaining 17% is split across all other countries, with no single country exceeding 2%. The "clear" countries above (Western Europe, East Asia, Australia) collectively represent a small share of total EB-2 ROW demand.
Based on the disruption status and historical processing rates, here is an approximate breakdown of how EB-2 visa numbers may be consumed in FY2026:
| Category | Queue | Est. FY2026 Throughput | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROW AOS (clear countries) | ~5,000-8,000 | ~4,000-6,000 | Normal AOS processing, ~570/month total ROW rate |
| ROW AOS (disrupted countries) | ~25,000-28,000 | ~2,000-4,000 | Enhanced vetting slows processing significantly |
| ROW Consular (clear countries) | N/A | ~4,000-6,000 | Reduced from ~12,500 historical due to bans |
| ROW Consular (disrupted countries) | N/A | ~0-1,000 | Most consular processing frozen or severely limited |
| Total ROW | ~45,300 | ~10,000-17,000 | |
| India AOS + Consular | ~19,850 | ~4,000-8,000 | ~300-500/month AOS + ~140 consular |
| China AOS + Consular | ~6,050 | ~2,000-3,000 | Steady processing |
| Mexico + Philippines | ~2,450 | ~1,000-2,000 | Both Current, smaller queues |
| Total All Countries | ~73,650 | ~17,000-30,000 | |
| Annual EB-2 Pool | ~50,000 | 40,040 base + ~10K FB spillover | |
| Estimated Unused / Available for Spillover | ~20,000-33,000 |
These are rough estimates based on historical processing rates, current disruption status, and USCIS inventory trends. Actual throughput depends on USCIS staffing, adjudication priorities, and policy changes. USCIS does not publish per-country processing rates or breakdown of "Rest of World" by individual country.
Key insight: Even though the ROW queue shows 33K pending cases, realistic FY2026 throughput for ROW may be only 10,000 to 17,000 due to disruptions reducing consular processing and enhanced vetting slowing AOS. The gap between the ~50,000 annual pool and ~17,000-30,000 estimated total usage creates room for ~20,000-33,000 unused visa numbers. Under INA §202(a)(5), these unused numbers flow to oversubscribed countries, primarily India.
This likely explains why DOS felt confident advancing EB-2 India FAD by 10 months in April 2026 despite the large ROW pending inventory. The 33K number overstates actual processable demand in the current disruption environment.
Retrogression risk: If disruptions are lifted (travel bans rescinded, IV freeze ended, MENA conflict resolved), ROW consular processing would resume and throughput would increase. This could absorb more of the annual pool and reduce spillover to India, potentially causing retrogression. The current forward movement for India depends in part on these disruptions continuing.
Summary
The convergence of PERM processing delays, travel bans, and the mechanics of horizontal spillover is creating conditions that may benefit EB-2 India applicants with priority dates in the 2014-2015 range. The data shows a clear structural gap in new ROW EB-2 demand (zero I-485 filings with 2025 priority dates), and EB-2 ROW going Current confirms that existing demand is being met.
The pending EB-2 India inventory shows approximately 7,604 cases between the current Final Action Date (July 15, 2014) and November 2014, with zero pending cases after that. If spillover continues at the current pace, the Final Action Date could advance through the remainder of 2014 during FY2026, with the potential for larger jumps once the inventory gap is reached.
The May 2026 Visa Bulletin (expected mid-April) will provide the next data point on whether DOS continues to advance dates aggressively.
Track all 15 EB category and country combinations with month-over-month comparison at greencardclock.com/visa-bulletin.
Data sourced from USCIS published I-485 inventory reports (uscis.gov), DOL FLAG processing times (flag.dol.gov), and Department of State visa bulletins (travel.state.gov). Estimates based on historical trends and publicly available data. This is not legal advice. Actual outcomes depend on government policy decisions, processing volumes, and individual case circumstances.
--- **Update (April 25, 2026): Revised projection.** The May 2026 Visa Bulletin Section D explicitly stated the State Department is routing unused immigrant visa numbers from disrupted-country applicants to non-disrupted ones. Our March model treated lost demand as evaporating, projecting roughly 95,000 family-to-employment spillover for FY2027. After incorporating per-country redistribution mechanics (including F2A's per-country cap exemption under INA 202(a)(4)(A)), our revised range for FY2027 family-to-employment spillover lands between 20,000 and 50,000 — still material for employment-based applicants, but smaller than initially projected. Actual numbers depend on whether DOS continues redistributing through the rest of FY2026 and how aggressively cutoffs advance in subsequent bulletins. *Estimates are based on publicly available data from the U.S. Department of State and USCIS. Spillover figures are approximations — actual allocations may differ. Not legal advice.*