PERM Delays, EB-2 ROW Demand, and What It Means for EB-2 India in FY2026
The April 2026 Visa Bulletin brought one of the largest single-month jumps in EB-2 India history: the Final Action Date advanced 10 months, from September 15, 2013 to July 15, 2014. The Dates for Filing moved to January 15, 2015. Meanwhile, EB-2 Rest of World (ROW) went fully Current.
What is driving this? A combination of structural PERM processing delays, travel bans reducing consular demand, and the mechanics of horizontal spillover under INA §202(a)(5). This analysis uses real USCIS inventory data, DOL processing times, and publicly reported case timelines to explain what is happening and what may come next.
Data sourced from USCIS published I-485 inventory reports, DOL FLAG processing times, and travel.state.gov visa bulletins. All figures are estimates based on publicly available government data. This is not legal advice.
1. PERM Processing Is Running 17 Months Behind
As of March 2026, the Department of Labor is processing PERM applications at the following pace:
| Queue | Currently Processing | Wait Time |
|---|---|---|
| Analyst Review | Nov 2024 filings | ~17 months |
| Audit Review | Jun 2025 filings | ~9 months |
Source: DOL FLAG processing times (flag.dol.gov), March 2026
This means a PERM application filed in January 2025 will not receive a decision until approximately mid-to-late 2026. After PERM approval, the applicant still needs to file an I-140 petition (4-6 months standard, or 15 business days with premium processing), and only then can file I-485 if a visa number is available.
The total pipeline from PERM filing to I-485 eligibility now spans roughly 2 to 3 years.
2. The EB-2 ROW I-485 Pipeline Shows a Clear Drop-Off
The USCIS Pending EB I-485 Inventory (published March 2026, data as of January 2, 2026) shows the following pending EB-2 ROW I-485 cases by priority date year:
| Priority Date Year | Pending I-485 Cases |
|---|---|
| 2016-2021 | 1,442 |
| 2022 | 2,011 |
| 2023 | 16,527 |
| 2024 (Jan-Jun) | 12,197 |
| 2024 (Jul-Oct) | 637 |
| 2025 | 0 |
| Total | 32,814 |
Source: USCIS Pending EB I-485 Inventory, January 2, 2026
The drop-off after July 2024 is significant. Only 637 pending I-485 cases have priority dates between July and October 2024. Zero cases have a 2025 priority date.
This pattern aligns with the PERM backlog. Applications filed after approximately mid-2023 would have been approved in late 2024 or early 2025, giving those applicants time to file I-140 and then I-485 by the January 2026 inventory snapshot. But applications filed after mid-2024 are still waiting for PERM approval, which is why there are almost no I-485 filings with priority dates after July 2024.
A real-world example posted on Reddit (April 1, 2026): an EB-2 ROW applicant reported their full timeline. PERM filed November 28, 2023. Approved April 10, 2025 (16.5 months). I-140 approved September 2025. I-485 approved April 1, 2026. Total time from PERM filing to green card: approximately 28 months.
3. EB-2 ROW Is Now Fully Current
The April 2026 Visa Bulletin shows EB-2 ROW as "Current" for both Final Action Dates and Dates for Filing. This means the Department of State has determined that current ROW demand does not exceed the available visa numbers.
For comparison, EB-2 ROW was at October 15, 2024 in the March 2026 bulletin and briefly retrogressed in August 2025 before recovering. The move to Current signals that existing ROW demand is being satisfied.
4. How Horizontal Spillover Works (INA §202(a)(5))
Under U.S. immigration law, each employment-based preference category receives a fixed annual allocation. EB-2 receives approximately 40,040 visa numbers per year (28.6% of the 140,000 total EB allocation).
When a country like ROW does not use all available visa numbers in a given category, those unused numbers "spill horizontally" to the most oversubscribed countries in the same preference category. For EB-2, this means unused ROW numbers flow primarily to India, then China.
Several factors are currently reducing ROW EB-2 visa consumption:
- PERM delays: The 17-month processing backlog means fewer new applicants are entering the I-485 queue
- Travel bans: Proclamations 10949 and 10998 have suspended or restricted immigrant visa issuance for nationals of approximately 39 countries, reducing consular processing for ROW applicants abroad
- IV processing freeze: Enhanced public charge screening has paused or slowed processing at consular posts in 75 countries
- MENA conflict: Embassy closures and reduced consular operations in 11 countries in the Middle East and North Africa region
5. What Does This Mean for EB-2 India?
The EB-2 India I-485 inventory (January 2, 2026) shows the following pending cases:
| Priority Date | Pending I-485 | Status (Apr 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| 2005-2011 | 382 | Available (before FAD) |
| 2012 | 420 | Available (before FAD) |
| Jan-Dec 2013 | 9,549 | Available (before FAD) |
| Jan-Jul 2014 | 9,360 | Available (at/before FAD Jul 15) |
| Aug 2014 | 1,565 | Next in line |
| Sep 2014 | 1,874 | Next in line |
| Oct 2014 | 2,194 | Next in line |
| Nov 2014 | 1,971 | Next in line |
| Dec 2014 | 0 | No pending cases |
| 2015+ | 0 | No pending cases in inventory |
Source: USCIS Pending EB I-485 Inventory, January 2, 2026. Total pending EB-2 India: 27,315 cases.
Key observation: There are approximately 19,711 pending EB-2 India I-485 cases with priority dates at or before the current Final Action Date of July 15, 2014. An additional 7,604 cases have priority dates between August and November 2014. After November 2014, there are zero pending I-485 cases in the USCIS inventory.
This gap in the inventory is significant. If the Final Action Date advances past November 2014, there would be no pending cases to process until a new cohort appears at a later priority date. This could result in a larger-than-usual forward jump in the Final Action Date.
6. The Dates for Filing Implications
The current Dates for Filing chart shows EB-2 India at January 15, 2015. Since the pending inventory shows zero cases with December 2014 or 2015 priority dates, the DFF may continue advancing as DOS looks to keep the filing pipeline active.
If USCIS Field Offices accept I-485 filings based on the DFF (which USCIS announces monthly), applicants with later priority dates could begin filing. However, actual visa number assignment still depends on the Final Action Date.
The forward movement in DFF would be a positive signal for applicants with priority dates in the 2015-2016 range, as it would allow them to file I-485 and obtain EAD/AP benefits while waiting for final adjudication.
7. Will This Pattern Continue in FY2027?
Several factors suggest the structural conditions for increased spillover could persist into FY2027 (October 2026 onward):
- PERM pipeline remains constrained: Applications filed in 2025 and early 2026 will not be approved until mid-to-late 2027 at the earliest, meaning the gap in new ROW EB-2 I-485 filings may widen further
- Family-based spillover: Under INA §201(d), unused family-sponsored visa numbers carry over to the employment-based categories in the following fiscal year. With consular processing significantly reduced by the travel bans, analysts have projected that unused family-based visas could spill into the EB pool in FY2027, potentially increasing the total EB allocation beyond the standard 140,000
- Travel bans remain in effect: Unless rescinded, the proclamations reducing consular processing will continue to depress both family-based and employment-based consular issuance
However, there are important uncertainties:
- DOS does not publish mid-year spillover figures. The exact number of unused ROW visas is not known until the fiscal year ends.
- Policy changes, including potential rescission of travel bans or changes to PERM processing priorities, could alter the trajectory
- A surge of new I-485 filings (for example, from applicants with recently approved I-140s) could absorb available numbers
- Retrogression is always possible if USCIS advances dates too aggressively and demand exceeds available supply
8. EB-2 ROW Monthly Consular Issuance (FY2025)
For context, here is the monthly EB-2 ROW consular visa issuance data from FY2025 (the most recent fiscal year with published data):
| Month | ROW EB-2 Visas | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2024 | 1,799 | 1,799 |
| Nov 2024 | 621 | 2,420 |
| Dec 2024 | 621 | 3,041 |
| Jan 2025 | 643 | 3,684 |
| Feb 2025 | 803 | 4,487 |
| Mar 2025 | 780 | 5,267 |
| Apr 2025 | 1,551 | 6,818 |
| May 2025 | 1,354 | 8,172 |
| Jun 2025 (bans take effect) | 1,090 | 9,262 |
| Jul 2025 | 1,171 | 10,433 |
| Aug 2025 | 1,074 | 11,507 |
Source: Department of State Monthly Immigrant Visa Issuance Statistics (travel.state.gov). Consular issuance only; does not include Adjustment of Status (I-485) approvals processed domestically by USCIS. September 2025 data not yet published.
Total EB-2 consular issuance across all countries in FY2025 (11 months): 12,662 visas, of which ROW accounted for 11,507 (91%). India EB-2 consular issuance was only 128 visas during the same period, as the vast majority of India EB-2 cases are processed through Adjustment of Status (I-485) within the United States.
Summary
The convergence of PERM processing delays, travel bans, and the mechanics of horizontal spillover is creating conditions that may benefit EB-2 India applicants with priority dates in the 2014-2015 range. The data shows a clear structural gap in new ROW EB-2 demand (zero I-485 filings with 2025 priority dates), and EB-2 ROW going Current confirms that existing demand is being met.
The pending EB-2 India inventory shows approximately 7,604 cases between the current Final Action Date (July 15, 2014) and November 2014, with zero pending cases after that. If spillover continues at the current pace, the Final Action Date could advance through the remainder of 2014 during FY2026, with the potential for larger jumps once the inventory gap is reached.
The May 2026 Visa Bulletin (expected mid-April) will provide the next data point on whether DOS continues to advance dates aggressively.
Track all 15 EB category and country combinations with month-over-month comparison at greencardclock.com/visa-bulletin.
Data sourced from USCIS published I-485 inventory reports (uscis.gov), DOL FLAG processing times (flag.dol.gov), and Department of State visa bulletins (travel.state.gov). Estimates based on historical trends and publicly available data. This is not legal advice. Actual outcomes depend on government policy decisions, processing volumes, and individual case circumstances.