Why We Revised Our FY2027 Family-to-Employment Spillover Estimate

# Why We Revised Our FY2027 Family-to-Employment Spillover Estimate In March 2026, we estimated that the family-based-to-employment-based (FB-to-EB) green card spillover for fiscal year 2027 would land near 95,000 visas. That number propagated through our wait-time estimator, our blog posts, and our newsletter. After analyzing the May 2026 visa bulletin, we are revising that estimate downward to a range of approximately **20,000 to 50,000**. This post walks through what we missed, what the May bulletin revealed, and what it means for employment-based applicants who were tracking our prior projection. ## Quick recap: why FB-to-EB spillover matters Under INA Section 201(d), unused family-based preference visas in one fiscal year roll over to the employment-based pool the following year. Because EB-2 and EB-3 backlogs for India and China are so deep, every additional visa in the EB pool represents real movement on priority dates. Historical FB-to-EB spillover ranged from ~16,500 (FY2020) to ~141,500 (FY2022, the all-time peak driven by COVID-era consular shutdowns). Our March projection of ~95,000 for FY2027 was anchored on the assumption that current disruptions (travel bans, the public charge IV processing freeze affecting 75 countries, MENA region embassy closures) would suppress FB consular processing similarly to COVID, leaving a large unused pool. ## What our March model missed Our March projection treated lost demand from disrupted countries as **evaporating** from the visa pool. If a particular country's consular processing was 100% blocked, the visas that would have gone to applicants from that country were assumed to remain unused. The May 2026 visa bulletin invalidated that assumption. Section D of the bulletin states directly: > Immigrant visa issuance rates for aliens from certain countries have decreased in light of various actions the administration has taken to protect national security and public safety, to make numbers available to prospective immigrants from other countries to use immigrant visa numbers that are available in FY-2026. Translation: the State Department is **actively routing unused numbers from disrupted-country applicants to non-disrupted-country applicants** by advancing visa bulletin cutoffs. This is not new policy — it is how INA 202 has always allowed redistribution under the per-country cap rules — but our model never simulated it. ## The April-to-May 2026 redistribution pattern Compared to the April 2026 visa bulletin, the May 2026 bulletin advanced family-based final action dates as follows: | Category | Rest of World | China | India | Mexico | Philippines | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | F1 | +4 months | +4 months | +4 months | +6 months | no change | | F2A | +6 months | +6 months | +6 months | +6 months | +6 months | | F2B | no change | no change | no change | no change | no change | | F3 | ~2 months | ~2 months | ~2 months | no change | ~5 months | | F4 | ~3 months | ~3 months | no change | no change | ~5 months | Two patterns stand out: **F2A advanced uniformly across every chargeability column.** This is INA 202(a)(4)(A) at work — 75% of F2A numbers are exempt from the 7% per-country cap. When ROW demand drops because of consular disruptions, the State Department can route those F2A numbers to applicants from any country with a qualifying priority date, without hitting per-country ceilings. F2A is the single biggest valve the State Department has to consume the 226,000 family-based annual allocation. **F2B held flat across the board.** F2B's per-country cap rules limit redistribution. When ROW demand drops and the State Department cannot route those numbers to oversubscribed countries due to caps, the category genuinely stalls. ## What our revised model accounts for Our updated FB-to-EB spillover engine now simulates: 1. **Per-country, per-FB-category supply-demand.** Each chargeability column (India / China / Mexico / Philippines / Rest of World) gets a separate demand baseline, and disruption affects only the disrupted-country share within ROW rather than the entire FB pool. 2. **F2A's 75% per-country cap exemption.** When other categories stall, F2A absorbs disproportionate redistribution because its exempt portion has no per-country ceiling. 3. **FB inter-category fall-down rules under INA 203(a).** Unused numbers from F1 cascade to F3, then F2; unused F2 returns to F1; unused F3 to F2; combined unused to F4. These mechanics keep the 226,000 allocation from being permanently wasted across categories. 4. **Per-event disruption factors.** Rather than one multiplicative number, each active disruption event (travel ban, IV freeze, MENA closures, social media vetting) contributes its own factor compounded across all active events. ## Revised projection: 20,000 - 50,000 for FY2027 Running the new engine against the same disruption stack and demand baseline used for the March projection produces a materially smaller spillover pool. The exact number depends on: - Whether the State Department continues advancing cutoffs at the May 2026 pace through the rest of FY2026 - Whether any disruption events lift, expand, or change in scope - Whether MENA region consulates resume normal operations - The pace of adjustment-of-status processing, which is unaffected by consular disruptions Our revised base case for FY2027 family-to-employment spillover is approximately **20,000 to 50,000 visas**, with conservative scenarios closer to 10,000 and adverse scenarios approaching 90,000 if disruptions intensify materially. This is still meaningful for employment-based applicants — every 10,000 spillover visas is a measurable shift in EB-2 and EB-3 movement for India and China — but it is significantly smaller than the 95,000 we previously cited. ## What this means if you are tracking your priority date If you used our priority date estimator earlier this month and saw a wait time projection that assumed ~95,000 of FY2027 FB spillover, the new estimate will likely show a slightly longer wait. The shift is on the order of months, not years. Specifically: - **EB-2 India and EB-3 India** receive less of an upward adjustment from FB spillover. If you had 8.5 years projected, the revised number might be 9.0 to 9.2 years. - **EB-1 India and China** are largely unaffected because their wait times are dominated by I-485 inventory rather than FB spillover. - **All categories** still benefit from the 140,000 EB base allocation plus whatever spillover does arrive — no spillover scenario reduces the EB pool below the statutory floor. ## What we are watching going forward The May 2026 bulletin is a signal, not a guarantee. The State Department warned in Section D that retrogression may be necessary later in the fiscal year if demand materializes faster than expected or administration policy changes. Our revised range factors in those uncertainties, but every monthly bulletin gives us new information about how aggressively the State Department is willing to consume the 226,000 family-based allocation. We are also tracking: - USCIS quarterly I-485 approval data, which tells us whether adjustment-of-status pace can absorb more demand - Monthly visa issuance reports from travel.state.gov, which will start showing FY2026 data once the State Department publishes it (typically with a 6-8 week lag) - Any new executive actions or court rulings affecting consular processing ## Methodology transparency We rebuilt the family-based spillover engine in April 2026 with a per-country supply-demand simulation that respects INA 202 per-country cap rules and INA 203(a) inter-category fall-down. The new engine is validated against historical FY2024 and FY2025 actuals from State Department published data within strict tolerances. When data quality is insufficient (for example, when a fiscal year has incomplete monthly data), our API returns explicit confidence flags so consumers of the data know when to treat estimates as directional rather than precise. We are continuing to refine the model as more data becomes available and will publish updates whenever our central estimates change materially. --- *This article was updated April 25, 2026 to reflect the May 2026 visa bulletin. Data sourced from travel.state.gov, USCIS quarterly reports, INA Sections 201, 202, and 203, and the Department of Homeland Security Yearbook of Immigration Statistics. Estimates are based on publicly available data; actual spillover allocations depend on State Department visa allocation decisions and may differ from our projections. This is not legal advice. For case-specific guidance, consult a licensed immigration attorney.*