Why We Revised Our FY2027 Family-to-Employment Spillover Estimate
Update, September 2026: our FY2027 family-to-employment estimate in September was approximately 73,000, within a range of about 40,000 to 102,000; the Priority Date Estimator shows the current figure. It was lower than the 81,000 below because we corrected our model, not because of a new bulletin. The State Department's January 2026 suspension of immigrant visa issuance for nationals of 75 countries, mentioned below, was vacated by a federal court in August 2026. Wait estimates also changed after an August 14, 2026 correction to our supply model; use the Priority Date Estimator for current figures. The April and May reasoning below is kept for transparency. Not legal advice.
In March 2026, we estimated that the family-based-to-employment-based (FB-to-EB) green card spillover for fiscal year 2027 would land near 95,000 visas. That number propagated through our wait-time estimator, our blog posts, and our newsletter. After analyzing the May 2026 visa bulletin, we revised that estimate downward to approximately 55,000 in April, then back up to approximately 81,000 in late May as consular disruptions deepened (see the update at the end).
Data sourced from the State Department visa bulletins, INA Sections 201, 202, and 203, and the Department of Homeland Security Yearbook of Immigration Statistics. Not legal advice.
TL;DR
- Old estimate: ~95,000 FB-to-EB spillover for FY2027.
- New estimate (updated May 2026): ~81,000, up from this April revision's ~55,000 as consular disruptions deepened, toward 90,000 or more if the May 22, 2026 USCIS adjustment-of-status memo (PM-602-0199) holds.
- What changed: the May 2026 visa bulletin showed the State Department actively routes unused numbers from disrupted countries to non-disrupted ones. Our prior model treated lost demand as evaporating.
- Impact: India EB-2 / EB-3 wait projections shift by months, not years.
1. Why FB-to-EB spillover matters
Under INA Section 201(d), unused family-based preference visas in one fiscal year roll over to the employment-based pool the following year. Because EB-2 and EB-3 backlogs for India and China are so deep, every additional visa in the EB pool represents real movement on priority dates.
Historical FB-to-EB spillover by fiscal year:
| Fiscal Year | FB-to-EB Spillover | Context |
|---|---|---|
| FY2020 | ~16,500 | Pre-COVID baseline |
| FY2021 | ~122,000 | COVID consular shutdown |
| FY2022 | ~141,500 | All-time peak |
| FY2023 | ~57,000 | Post-COVID wind-down |
| FY2024 | ~21,000 | Normal year |
| FY2026 | ~46,300 | Official FY2026 determination (September 2026 Visa Bulletin) |
| FY2027 (revised) | ~81,000 | Heavy disruption stack (updated May 2026) |
Our March projection of ~95,000 for FY2027 was anchored on the assumption that current disruptions (entry restrictions under Presidential Proclamations 10949 and 10998, the State Department's January 2026 suspension of immigrant visa issuance for nationals of 75 countries, MENA region embassy closures) would suppress FB consular processing similarly to COVID, leaving a large unused pool.
2. What our March model missed
Our March projection treated lost demand from disrupted countries as evaporating from the visa pool. If a particular country's consular processing was 100% blocked, the visas that would have gone to applicants from that country were assumed to remain unused.
The May 2026 visa bulletin invalidated that assumption. Section D of the bulletin states directly:
Immigrant visa issuance rates for aliens from certain countries have decreased in light of various actions the administration has taken to protect national security and public safety, and to otherwise advance the interests of the United States (e.g. Presidential Proclamation 10949, Presidential Proclamation 10998, Immigrant Visa Processing Updates). Consequently, to make visas available in accordance with sections 201-203 of the INA to prospective immigrants from other countries to use immigrant visa numbers that are available in FY-2026, dates for filing and final action dates have been advanced across various immigrant visa categories.
Translation: the State Department is actively routing unused numbers from disrupted-country applicants to non-disrupted-country applicants by advancing visa bulletin cutoffs. This is not new policy, it is how INA 202 has always allowed redistribution under the per-country cap rules, but our prior model never simulated it.
3. The April-to-May 2026 redistribution pattern
Compared to the April 2026 visa bulletin, the May 2026 bulletin advanced family-based final action dates as follows:
| Category | Rest of World | China | India | Mexico | Philippines |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F1 | +4 months | +4 months | +4 months | +6 months | no change |
| F2A | +6 months | +6 months | +6 months | +6 months | +6 months |
| F2B | no change | no change | no change | no change | no change |
| F3 | ~2 months | ~2 months | ~2 months | no change | ~5 months |
| F4 | ~3 months | ~3 months | no change | no change | ~5 months |
Source: State Department Visa Bulletins for April and May 2026, final action dates for family-sponsored preference cases. Approximate changes are rounded to the nearest month.
Two patterns stand out:
F2A advanced uniformly across every chargeability column. This is INA 202(a)(4)(A) at work, since 75% of F2A numbers are exempt from the 7% per-country cap. When ROW demand drops because of consular disruptions, the State Department can route those F2A numbers to applicants from any country with a qualifying priority date, without hitting per-country ceilings. F2A is the single biggest valve the State Department has to consume the 226,000 family-based annual allocation.
F2B held flat across the board. F2B's per-country cap rules limit redistribution. When ROW demand drops and the State Department cannot route those numbers to oversubscribed countries due to caps, the category genuinely stalls.
4. What our revised model accounts for
The revised estimate accounts for per-country limits, the family-category fall-down rules in INA 203(a), and current consular processing disruptions.
5. Revised projection: approximately 81,000 for FY2027 (updated May 2026)
The revised estimate is materially smaller than the March figure. It depends on:
- Whether the State Department continues advancing cutoffs at the May 2026 pace through the rest of FY2026.
- Whether any disruption events lift, expand, or change in scope.
- Whether MENA region consulates resume normal operations.
- The pace of adjustment-of-status processing, which is unaffected by consular disruptions.
Our April base case was approximately 55,000 visas, with a conservative floor near 10,000 and an adverse case approaching 90,000. As of late May 2026, with consular disruptions deepening, we have revised the central case up to approximately 81,000, with a path toward 90,000 or more if the memo holds. This is still meaningful for employment-based applicants, since every 10,000 spillover visas is a measurable shift in EB-2 and EB-3 movement for India and China, but it is significantly smaller than the 95,000 we previously cited.
6. What this means if you are tracking your priority date
If you used our priority date estimator earlier this month and saw a wait time projection that assumed ~95,000 of FY2027 FB spillover, the new estimate will likely show a slightly longer wait. The shift is on the order of months, not years.
- EB-2 India and EB-3 India: receive less of an upward adjustment from FB spillover. If you had 8.5 years projected, the revised number might be 9.0 to 9.2 years.
- EB-1 India and China: largely unaffected because their wait times are dominated by I-485 inventory rather than FB spillover.
- All categories: still benefit from the 140,000 EB base allocation plus whatever spillover does arrive. No spillover scenario reduces the EB pool below the statutory floor.
7. What we are watching going forward
The May 2026 bulletin is a signal, not a guarantee. The State Department warned in Section D that retrogression may be necessary later in the fiscal year as additional demand materializes or administration actions are amended. Our revised range factors in those uncertainties, but every monthly bulletin gives us new information about how aggressively the State Department is willing to consume the 226,000 family-based allocation.
Sources to watch:
- USCIS quarterly I-485 approval data, which tells us whether adjustment-of-status pace can absorb more demand.
- Monthly visa issuance reports from travel.state.gov, which will start showing FY2026 data once the State Department publishes it (typically with a 6-8 week lag).
- Any new executive actions or court rulings affecting consular processing.
This article was updated April 25, 2026 to reflect the May 2026 visa bulletin. Estimates are based on publicly available data; actual spillover allocations depend on State Department visa allocation decisions and may differ from our projections. This is not legal advice. For case-specific guidance, consult a licensed immigration attorney.
Update: May 23, 2026
Since this April revision, our FY2027 family-to-employment projection has risen again, to approximately 81,000. The driver is the stacking of consular disruptions through spring 2026: the MENA-region conflict and embassy closures, the expanded entry restrictions under Proclamations 10949 and 10998, and the State Department's January 2026 suspension of immigrant visa issuance for nationals of 75 countries together cut projected family consular usage further than the April model assumed. Our estimate now puts FY2026 family usage near 145,000 of the 226,000 allocation, leaving about 81,000 to fall up into the FY2027 employment-based pool (lifting it to roughly 221,000). The memo is additional upside, plausibly toward or past 90,000 if it holds and shifts more family cases into the disrupted consular channel, though most of that effect would land in FY2028. Confidence remains low until DOS publishes the FY2027 Annual Numerical Limits, typically in the fall. This is not legal advice.
Update (May 25, 2026): Official FY2026 limits supersede earlier estimates in this post. The State Department published its Annual Numerical Limits for FY-2026 on May 19, 2026 (a standalone PDF, released later than the usual October bulletin). It sets the worldwide employment-based pool at 186,000: the 140,000 statutory floor plus about 46,000 of family-based numbers that went unused in FY2025 and fell up (about 53,196 each for EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3 worldwide). Where this post estimated that FY2025 family numbers were largely used (implying little FY2026 spillover), the official figures show family usage fell roughly 46,000 short of the 226,000 cap, so the FY2026 employment pool is larger than originally projected here. Figures remain "Estimated, pending official determination." Not legal advice.
Update (October 22, 2026): The State Department's official determination, in the September 2026 Visa Bulletin, set the FY2026 employment-based limit at 186,317: the 140,000 floor plus 46,317 family-based numbers that went unused in FY2025. The spillover table above now shows that figure in a row labelled FY2026, like the other rows, by the fiscal year that received the numbers; it was previously labelled FY2025. The September note at the top now dates the 73,000 estimate to September and adds a line on the August 14 correction; the Priority Date Estimator shows the current figure. The April to May 2026 family-based table in section 3 has been checked against both bulletins and now cites them. Not legal advice.