September 2026 Visa Bulletin Analysis: Employment Frozen, Family Dates Jump
The September 2026 Visa Bulletin is loaded. Two things stand out: employment-based dates did not move at all, and family-sponsored dates advanced sharply. This covers what changed, why the family movement matters to employment-based applicants, what previous spillover years looked like, and what October brings.
Sources: the September 2026 Visa Bulletin (Department of State, CA/VO August 10 2026), DOS Report of the Visa Office Table V, and USCIS visa bulletin chart determinations. Not legal advice.
Employment-based: nothing moved
Every tracked employment category is identical to August 2026.
| Category | Final Action | Dates for Filing | vs August |
|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 India | Oct 15, 2022 | Dec 1, 2023 | No change |
| EB-2 India | Unavailable | Jan 15, 2015 | No change |
| EB-3 India | Jan 1, 2014 | Jan 15, 2015 | No change |
| EB-1 China | Jul 1, 2023 | Dec 1, 2023 | No change |
| EB-2 China | Sep 1, 2021 | Jan 1, 2022 | No change |
| EB-3 China | Jan 1, 2022 | Jan 8, 2022 | No change |
| EB-3 Rest of World | Sep 1, 2024 | Current | No change |
| EB-5 Unreserved India | Unavailable | May 1, 2024 | No change |
USCIS continues to designate the Final Action Dates chart for employment-based adjustment filings, and Dates for Filing for family-sponsored. Confirm on the USCIS visa bulletin page before filing, since USCIS posts its determination separately from the bulletin.
Family-sponsored: large advances
Comparing September against July 2026, the movement in the family categories is substantial for Rest of World, China and India.
| Category (Rest of World) | July 2026 | September 2026 | Advance |
|---|---|---|---|
| F1 | Feb 1, 2018 | Jan 22, 2020 | About 24 months |
| F2A | Jan 1, 2025 | Aug 22, 2026 | About 20 months |
| F2B | Nov 22, 2017 | Aug 22, 2019 | About 21 months |
| F3 | Apr 15, 2012 | Oct 22, 2014 | About 30 months |
| F4 | Jan 1, 2009 | Oct 22, 2011 | About 34 months |
China and India track the same Rest of World dates in F1, F2A, F2B and F3. India F4 is the exception and did not move, sitting at Nov 1, 2006. Mexico and Philippines advanced by one to two months in most categories, other than F2A which moved about 20 months for both.
Why family movement matters to employment-based applicants
Under INA 201(d), family-sponsored numbers that go unused in one fiscal year are added to the employment-based limit for the following fiscal year. That is where employment spillover comes from.
The September bulletin puts a number on the current year. The FY2026 worldwide employment limit is 186,317, against a statutory baseline of 140,000. The difference, roughly 46,000, is what fell up from unused FY2025 family numbers.
The Department of State states in this bulletin that dates for filing and final action dates have been advanced across various categories so that immigrant visa numbers available in FY 2026 are used, and that retrogression may become necessary in upcoming months as additional demand materializes. The large family advances are consistent with that stated aim.
For employment-based applicants the implication cuts both ways, and it is genuinely undecided:
- If the advanced family dates draw enough documentarily qualified applicants, more FY2026 family numbers get used, and less falls up into the FY2027 employment pool.
- If demand does not materialise in time, more goes unused, and more falls up.
Family numbers used late in a fiscal year are difficult to forecast, so treat any confident claim in either direction with caution.
What previous spillover years looked like
Spillover is not a small effect. Using DOS Report of the Visa Office Table V number use, here is India across EB-1, EB-2 and EB-3 combined:
| Fiscal year | India EB-1 + EB-2 + EB-3 numbers used | Context |
|---|---|---|
| FY2019 | 16,999 | Low year |
| FY2020 | 22,807 | Ordinary |
| FY2021 | 74,025 | Large spillover year |
| FY2022 | 93,468 | Largest in this series |
| FY2023 | 25,687 | Back to ordinary |
| FY2024 | 17,288 | Low year |
The point to take from this is the size of the swing. A large spillover year delivered roughly four to five times an ordinary year for India. It is also temporary: FY2023 and FY2024 returned to the ordinary range immediately afterwards. Two consecutive strong years moved a great many cases, and then the window closed.
Checking our own forecast against the actual issuance data
Our published FY2027 spillover estimate is about 81,000. It has moved: roughly 95,000 in March, revised down to about 55,000 in April, then back up to 81,000 in May as consular disruption deepened. DOS has since published monthly immigrant visa issuance through February 2026, so that forecast can now be checked against real data rather than left as a projection.
Family-preference issuance worldwide, first five months of the fiscal year:
| Month | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|
| October | 20,760 | 16,424 |
| November | 14,269 | 14,487 |
| December | 14,450 | 15,766 |
| January | 13,565 | 12,551 |
| February | 15,431 | 7,720 |
| Total | 78,475 | 66,948 |
FY2026 is running about 15 percent behind FY2025 over the same five months, and the monthly trend is downward: October was the strongest month and February the weakest at less than half its FY2025 counterpart.
Why this method can be trusted now, when an earlier version of it was wrong
We have made this projection before and got it wrong, so it is worth being explicit about what changed.
In our April analysis of FY2025 issuance data we wrote that one family visa class, FX, appeared in the monthly reports but that its relationship to the 226,000 cap required further verification, and we left it out of the count. FX is not a rounding detail: it was 42,056 issuances in FY2025. Leaving it out made family usage look far lower than it was, and therefore made the leftover pool look far larger. That post has now been corrected.
Publication of the official FY2026 employment limit finally allows that to be settled, because it back-solves what FY2025 family usage actually was: 226,000 minus 46,317 equals 179,683. Testing both readings against that known answer:
| FY2025 method | Consular issuance counted | Spillover it predicts (226,000 minus that) | Actual was 46,317 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Counting F1 to F4 only, excluding FX | 133,806 | 92,194 | off by about 46,000 |
| Counting F1 to F4 including FX | 175,862 | 50,138 | off by about 3,800 |
That answers the open question. FX belongs in the count: it is the portion of F2A that is exempt from the per-country limit, not from the 226,000 worldwide cap, which is the same distinction the September bulletin draws in its own F2A note. The projections below include it.
Two further points follow. First, the remaining 3,800 gap is family-preference adjustment of status, so these categories are used roughly 98 percent at consulates and the monthly issuance reports capture nearly the whole picture. That residual is still an estimate, because USCIS reports family adjustments as one number combining immediate relatives with F1 to F4 and does not publish the split. Second, FY2025 shows no end of year surge to rely on: July, August and September together were 24.0 percent of the year, almost exactly a flat quarter, so the assumption that a late push automatically erases a shortfall is not supported by the most recent complete year.
Projecting the rest of FY2026 three ways:
| Assumption for March to September | FY2026 family usage | Falls up to FY2027 |
|---|---|---|
| The same 15 percent shortfall holds | about 153,000 | about 73,000 |
| Continues at the January to February average | about 141,000 | about 85,000 |
| Continues at the February rate | about 124,000 | about 102,000 |
Our published estimate of 81,000 sits inside that range and close to its middle. Five months of actual issuance data do not call for a revision, so we are leaving it where it is.
One force cuts against the higher scenarios, and it is the family movement described above. Advancing F3 and F4 by roughly thirty months pulls a large number of additional applicants into the documentarily qualified pool for the rest of FY2026. If that converts into issuance, usage lands nearer the top of the range and spillover nearer the bottom. That is the single thing most worth watching between now and September 30.
What October brings
October 1 starts FY2027, and several things reset at once:
- Annual limits reset. Categories that exhausted their FY2026 allocation, including India EB-2 and India EB-5 Unreserved, become eligible for numbers again. Our Estimator anchors an Unavailable category on this reopening.
- Cutoff dates on reopening are not guaranteed to return to where they were. A category that was advanced aggressively before reaching its limit can reopen at a more conservative date.
- The FY2027 limits will likely lag. DOS published the official FY2026 limits in this bulletin, eleven months into the fiscal year, after USCIS supplied the required data on July 24. Under INA 203(g), DOS allocates on reasonable estimates until then, so early FY2027 figures should be read as provisional.
- USCIS may change which chart it designates. Confirm the October determination before filing.
The Department of State also flags three categories to watch in this bulletin: EB-1 India may become unavailable if its pro-rated limit is reached before the fiscal year ends, and both EB-2 and EB-5 Unreserved may need to retrogress or become unavailable to hold number use within the FY2026 limit.
Checking your own case
Our Priority Date Estimator is updated with the September bulletin. For a category showing Unavailable it projects forward from the October reopening rather than treating the blank cell as Current, and it shows the inputs behind the estimate.
Estimates are based on historical trends and published government data. They are not guarantees and this is not legal advice. For advice on your own case, consult an immigration attorney.
Update, August 26: two consular developments landed after this post
This section was added on August 26, 2026. The bulletin analysis above is unchanged. Two things happened at the consular end in the days around publication, and both bear on the spillover question this post left open.
1. A federal court vacated the 75 country immigrant visa suspension
On August 21, 2026, the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York vacated the State Department policy that had suspended immigrant visa issuance to nationals of 75 designated countries. That policy was announced on January 14, 2026 and took effect January 21 on public charge grounds. The court set it aside as contrary to law and in excess of statutory authority, and visa refusals resting solely on the policy were set aside and remanded.
An earlier decision in the District of Columbia on July 31, 2026 had reached a similar legal conclusion but granted relief only to the named plaintiff and their derivative family members. The August 21 ruling is the broader one.
2. Immigrant visa interviews were paused worldwide for officer training
Immigrant visa applicants at U.S. embassies and consulates worldwide were notified on and around August 24 and 25 that their scheduled interviews are being rescheduled. The State Department says it began a global training programme in early August so that consular officers apply the public charge ground of inadmissibility more thoroughly and consistently, and that appointments are being adjusted around those sessions.
Three things are worth stating precisely, because the reporting has been mixed:
- No end date has been published. The State Department has not released a duration, a scope document, or a resumption schedule. Any estimate of how long this lasts is a guess, including ours.
- Adjustment of status is not part of this pause. If you are inside the United States with a pending I-485, that case sits with USCIS, not with a consulate. This pause does not touch it.
- Reports of a worldwide cancellation of nonimmigrant appointments are not supported. We could not verify a confirmed worldwide halt of F-1 or H-1B interviews, and we are not treating one as fact.
Separately, and often confused with the above: USCIS issued new public charge guidance on August 18, 2026, implementing the DHS final rule published July 20, 2026. That guidance takes effect September 18, 2026 and it does apply to adjustment of status. It is a different action from the consular pause, with a different agency and a different effective date.
What this does to the spillover question
The post above ended by saying the single thing most worth watching was whether the advanced family dates would convert into actual issuance before September 30. That question now has a partial answer, and it points toward more spillover, not less.
The reasoning is the one already set out above. Family preference categories are used roughly 98 percent at consulates, which we verified against the published FY2026 employment limit earlier in this post. Family numbers that go unused in FY2026 are added to the FY2027 employment limit. A worldwide consular pause in the final weeks of the fiscal year suppresses precisely the channel that converts an advanced cutoff date into an issued visa. The Department of State advanced family dates by up to 34 months in this bulletin with the stated aim of using FY2026 numbers. A pause on the interviews largely works against that aim.
| Development | Effect on FY2026 family usage | Effect on FY2027 employment spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Family dates advanced up to 34 months | Raises it | Lowers it |
| Worldwide consular interview pause | Lowers it | Raises it |
| 75 country suspension vacated | Raises it, in principle | Lowers it, in principle |
The three do not carry equal weight over the roughly five weeks that remain in FY2026. The pause applies at every post worldwide and blocks the interview step itself, so it is the one with the most direct effect on issuance in that window. The court ruling reopens a channel for 75 countries on paper, but those same posts are covered by the worldwide pause, so in the near term it is largely offset. An appeal is expected.
For scale, using the monthly family preference figures in the table above, FY2026 has been running between roughly 7,700 and 16,400 issuances a month. Every month of substantially suppressed consular processing is therefore of that order in additional numbers falling up to FY2027. That is enough to move our published estimate toward the upper scenarios in the projection table, but we are not revising the 81,000 figure yet, for one reason: the estimate would rest entirely on a duration nobody has published. We would rather leave a figure inside a stated range than replace it with a more precise looking number built on a guess.
One thing that cuts the other way for employment applicants
It is worth being clear that this is not purely good news. The fall up rule runs one direction: unused family numbers are added to the following year's employment limit. Unused employment numbers are not banked for employment. They go the other way, into the following year's family limit.
Employment based immigrant visas are also issued at consulates, not only through adjustment of status. So the same pause that increases the family shortfall also risks leaving FY2026 employment numbers unused in the closing weeks, and those are lost to the employment side rather than carried forward. The net effect is a gain, but a smaller one than the family arithmetic alone suggests.
For applicants charged to India specifically, the employment side of that risk is small. Employment based consular issuance for India has been running at a very low level this fiscal year, with the great majority of India's employment cases handled as adjustment of status inside the United States, and India EB-2 has in any case already reached its FY2026 limit and shows Unavailable. The consular exposure in the closing weeks falls mainly on Rest of World applicants.
Our own tracking
Both developments are now recorded in our disruption tracker and our policy alerts. We have deliberately not changed any modelling factor for the worldwide pause. It is logged as observational until a duration is published or until monthly issuance data shows the effect, because a factor entered against an unknown duration would be a guess presented as an input. Estimates on the site are unchanged by it today.
Sources for this update: U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York (August 21, 2026 order), U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia (July 31, 2026), Department of State statements as reported, USCIS Policy Manual guidance of August 18, 2026, and the DHS final rule published in the Federal Register on July 20, 2026. Not legal advice.