India vs China Employment-Based Green Cards: FY2026 Closed, What FY2027 Could Bring, Category by Category
FY2026 ended the way few expected back in spring: India EB-2 reached its annual limit in May and went unavailable, India EB-1 and EB-2 both retrogressed, and the pending-inventory reports showed the 2013 cohort draining. FY2027 began October 1 with a larger family-to-employment fall-up expected (our September 2026 estimate: about 73,000). This is the side-by-side India and China comparison, category by category, of what FY2026 delivered and what FY2027 could.
Sources: DOS Annual Numerical Limits FY2026, DOS Report of the Visa Office (Table V number use), the June 2026 and October 2026 visa bulletins, and the USCIS employment-based I-485 pending inventory as of April 3, 2026 and August 2026. FY2027 figures are estimates and carry low confidence this far out. Not legal advice.
The short version
- The swing factor for FY2027 is family-to-employment spillover. Unused family green cards fall into the employment pool: about 46,000 in FY2026, and our September 2026 estimate for FY2027 was near 73,000 (range about 40,000 to 102,000). That would lift the employment pool from roughly 186,000 toward 213,000.
- India gains the most because it is the most oversubscribed: it absorbs the largest share of redistributed numbers. India EB-2, which came in near 5,950 in the constrained FY2026, projects to a base case around 7,200 in FY2027, with real upside if spillover is strong.
- China is steadier. Its categories sit on denser 2020 to 2021 priority dates and a smaller backlog, so the extra supply moves China dates less dramatically than India.
- The April inventory confirms the drain: India EB-2's 2013 priority-date pile is shrinking, the 2014 wall is still the gate, and the first 2015 I-485s appeared. China EB-2 demand stays concentrated in 2020 to 2021.
- June 2026 wildcard: a June 5, 2026 federal court ruling resumed USCIS green-card and work-permit processing for nationals of the 39 countries covered by Proclamations 10949 and 10998. With about three months left in FY2026, that let those countries use numbers our model assumed would spill to India and China, a downside risk to the FY2027 projection. The ruling did not affect the entry restrictions under those proclamations or the State Department's January 2026 suspension of immigrant visa issuance for nationals of 75 countries (a federal court vacated that suspension in August 2026).
- These are supply projections, not promises. Spillover, the 7 percent per-country share, the June court ruling, and the May 22, 2026 USCIS adjustment-of-status memo (PM-602-0199) can all move the result.
Why FY2027 looks different: the spillover pool
Employment-based green cards start from a worldwide floor of 140,000 a year. On top of that, family-based green cards that go unused fall up into the employment pool. In FY2026 that fall-up was about 46,000, bringing the employment pool to roughly 186,000. For FY2027 our September 2026 estimate put the fall-up near 73,000, lifting the pool toward 213,000. If family-based usage stays as suppressed as recent consular disruptions suggest, the upside case runs higher still, toward 102,000 of fall-up. Why we revised it from earlier numbers is covered in our spillover revision post.
The catch: more pool does not help every country equally. The extra supply reaches oversubscribed countries like India and China in two ways: a larger pool raises each country's 7 percent share (for one category, from about 3,700 toward roughly 4,300 at a 213,000 pool), and numbers other countries do not use are redistributed to them in priority-date order. India, as the most backlogged country, has the most applicants waiting for those redistributed numbers.
A new wildcard: the June 2026 court ruling
On June 5, 2026, a federal court vacated the USCIS hold that had paused adjudication of green cards, work permits, asylum, and other benefits for nationals of 39 countries. USCIS had to resume processing those suspended cases. Two related restrictions did not change at the time: the State Department's January 2026 suspension of immigrant visa issuance for nationals of 75 countries, which a federal court later vacated in August 2026, and the entry restrictions under Proclamations 10949 and 10998.
This matters for the spillover math. Our projection assumed those 39 countries would keep consuming few green card numbers, leaving more to fall up to oversubscribed countries like India and China. With roughly three months left in the fiscal year and domestic processing resuming, some of those numbers would be used by applicants from those countries instead of spilling over. That is a downside risk. At the time, it pulled our June FY2027 range toward its lower-to-middle part and made the optimistic upside less likely. The reason the spillover does not simply disappear is that, at the time of the ruling, the 75-country suspension and the entry restrictions remained, so a large share of the suppression was still in force. The fuller effect would land in FY2028, since most of FY2026's numbers were already governed by the hold before the ruling.
India: category by category
FY2026 was a constrained year for India. EB-2 reached its per-country limit in May 2026 and went unavailable for the rest of the year, after the final action date had retrogressed from July 2014 all the way back to September 2013. EB-1 retrogressed to December 15, 2022 in June and October 15, 2022 in July. EB-3 actually advanced, to December 15, 2013 in June and January 1, 2014 in July. Here is what each category received in FY2026 against the FY2027 outlook, with the final action dates from the October 2026 Visa Bulletin.
| India | FY2026 issued (est.) | FY2027 base case | October 2026 FAD |
|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 | ~11,000 | ~11,000 (was ~22,600) | Feb 1, 2023 |
| EB-2 | ~5,950 (limit reached) | ~7,235 (was ~13,800) | Nov 1, 2013 |
| EB-3 | ~4,875 | ~4,765 (was ~8,800) | Jan 1, 2014 |
| Total | ~21,800 | ~23,000 |
The base case is a typical year of past State Department issuance for each category, which already includes the redistribution that happened in those years. A strong spillover year, with family-based numbers heavily underused and Rest of World leaving numbers unused, could add to it. There is also a low case: the 7 percent per-country share, roughly 2,800 a year per category at the 140,000 floor and higher when the family fall-up enlarges the pool. India EB-2 has landed near or below it in several recent years (2,879 in FY2017, 2,908 in FY2019 and 2,599 in FY2020). The base cases are typical past years and do not scale with the FY2027 pool; at 213,000 each country's share would be about 4,300 per category, above China's EB-2 and EB-3 base cases. For the year-by-year history, see our 15 years of India EB supply post.
The headline for India is EB-2's modest recovery. FY2026 delivered about 5,950 numbers before the limit was reached. The FY2027 base case of about 7,200 could carry the final action date to about early 2014 by the end of FY2027, counting only the I-485s USCIS reported pending in August 2026; reaching 2015 within the year would take a year like FY2021, when India EB-2 received 28,246 numbers. EB-1 remains India's largest category by supply, and EB-3 stays the smallest.
China: category by category
China enters FY2027 in a calmer position. In the October 2026 Visa Bulletin its final action dates are October 1, 2021 for EB-2, January 8, 2022 for EB-3 and July 1, 2023 for EB-1, and its pending backlog is a fraction of India's. The extra spillover helps China too, but because China is less oversubscribed and its queue is shallower, the dates move less dramatically.
| China | FY2027 base case | October 2026 FAD |
|---|---|---|
| EB-1 | ~6,300 (was ~10,400) | Jul 1, 2023 |
| EB-2 | ~4,200 (was ~6,400) | Oct 1, 2021 |
| EB-3 | ~3,500 (was ~5,500) | Jan 8, 2022 |
| Total | ~14,100 (was ~22,300) |
China's FY2026 use estimates (about 5,900, 5,000 and 4,800) came from the earlier model and are withdrawn (see the update at the top).
China EB-2 held at September 1, 2021 from January to September 2026, and China EB-3 advanced in steps, from May 1, 2021 in January to January 8, 2022 in October. For a deeper look at China specifically, including the large EB-5 share and the I-140 picture, see our China EB data breakdown.
What the latest inventory says about demand
Supply is only half the equation. The USCIS pending I-485 inventory shows how the demand pile is draining; the April 3, 2026 report predates the May 22 limit. The clearest signal is in India EB-2 by priority-date year.
| India EB-2 priority-date year | Pending (April 2026) | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 7,670 | Draining: down from 8,594 in March as the FAD clears it |
| 2014 | 17,421 | The wall: about 8,500 had priority dates before the April final action date (July 15, 2014) and about 9,000 were waiting behind it; the October 2026 final action date (November 1, 2013) is earlier than all of them |
| 2015 | Too few for USCIS to publish | New: the first 2015 I-485s to appear (USCIS does not publish very small counts), as filing crossed into January 2015 |
The story this tells: FY2026 cleared into 2013, but the dense 2014 cohort, more than 17,000 I-485s, is the gate that the final action date must work through next. That is why the FY2027 base case could carry the EB-2 India date only into early 2014 rather than to 2015. China EB-2 demand, by contrast, is concentrated in 2020 and 2021 (about 3,560 I-485s sit at 2021 alone), a shallower and more recent pile. You can see the full month-by-month breakdown in our April 2026 inventory analysis.
Where this could land in FY2027
The July 2026 Visa Bulletin said: "It is likely that in October the final action date will advance to at least the final action date announced in the May 2026 Visa Bulletin; however, the date is dependent on the demand for EB-2 numbers by Indian applicants and the FY 2027 annual limit on employment-based preference visas." The October 2026 bulletin, the first of FY2027, set India EB-2's final action date at November 1, 2013, with a filing date of January 15, 2015. USCIS's August 2026 inventory shows about 28,000 EB-2 India I-485s: about 3,700 with priority dates before November 1, 2013, about 6,200 before 2014 and about 27,000 before 2015. At the base case of about 7,200 numbers, and counting only I-485s already filed, the final action date could reach about early 2014 by the end of FY2027. A strong spillover year could carry it further into 2014. The low case, near the 7 percent share, would leave India EB-2 barely moving.
China's filed line is about one year of its base supply: the August 2026 inventory shows about 4,400 China EB-2 and about 3,900 China EB-3 I-485s, against base cases of about 4,200 and 3,500 numbers. How far China's dates move depends on how many new I-485s arrive under the later October 2026 filing dates (January 1, 2023 for EB-2 and April 1, 2024 for EB-3), alongside consular applicants who draw on the same numbers.
Several things can change all of this. First, the spillover number itself is a projection and depends on how underused family-based immigration turns out to be, which the June 5 court ruling (above) put at some downside risk. Second, India can receive numbers beyond its 7 percent share only when other countries leave them unused. Third, the memo could shift how many applicants are processed domestically versus abroad; our read of the memo is here.
You can run your own priority date against the live version of these supply scenarios on the Priority Date Estimator, which updates with each USCIS and State Department release.
This article is informational only and is not legal advice. FY2026 figures are estimates of actual issuance based on DOS data and the limit-reached announcement; FY2027 figures are estimates and may change materially as new data is published. The India and China figures reflect our August 14, 2026 supply-model correction and the update at the top, and supersede our earlier per-category estimates. For guidance about your own case, consult a licensed immigration attorney.