EB I-485 Inventory Deep Dive: Q1 FY2026 Data + April 2026 Visa Bulletin Shakes Everything Up
Update (March 25, 2026): This article has been substantially revised to incorporate the April 2026 Visa Bulletin — the most consequential monthly update for India EB-2 in years. ROW EB-2 FAD hit Current, activating a statutory per-country cap exception that is now directing thousands of additional visa numbers to India EB-2.
Data sourced from USCIS pending I-485 inventory reports (Oct–Jan), travel.state.gov visa bulletins (Oct 2025 – Apr 2026), and INA statutory provisions. This is not legal advice.
Total Inventory Snapshot: Oct 2025 – Jan 2026
USCIS published updated pending EB I-485 inventory data covering October 2025 through January 2026. The total EB AOS inventory grew from 167,567 to 208,394 — a 24.4% increase in just three months.
| Month | Total Pending | Available (Processable) | Awaiting Visa | Key Event |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | 167,567 | 94,539 (56%) | 73,028 (44%) | FY2026 begins |
| Nov 2025 | 184,653 | 95,386 (52%) | 89,267 (48%) | ROW EB-2 filing wave starts |
| Dec 2025 | 202,540 | 108,381 (54%) | 94,159 (46%) | ROW EB-2 awaiting peaks |
| Jan 2026 | 208,394 | 135,609 (65%) | 72,785 (35%) | India EB-1 FAD advance flips ~13K cases |
The January jump in "available" cases (+27,228) reflects the India EB-1 Final Action Date advancing to February 1, 2023 — flipping approximately 13,000 India EB-1 cases from "awaiting" to "available" overnight.
Country Breakdown (Jan 2, 2026)
| Country | EB-1 | EB-2 | EB-3 | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest of World | 31,820 | 32,968 | 9,650 | 101,014 | 48.5% |
| India | 21,895 | 27,521 | 16,876 | 72,669 | 34.9% |
| China | 4,116 | 6,120 | 5,602 | 25,629 | 12.3% |
| Mexico | 1,898 | 1,581 | 1,004 | 7,156 | 3.4% |
| Philippines | 292 | 450 | 908 | 1,926 | 0.9% |
| Total | 60,021 | 68,640 | 34,040 | 208,394 | 100% |
Rest of World holds nearly half of all pending EB I-485s — driven by massive new EB-2 filings (+102% in three months). India's share actually decreased despite having the largest individual backlog.
Key Category Movements (Oct → Jan)
| Country | Category | Oct 2025 | Jan 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | EB-1 | 15,420 | 21,895 | +42.0% |
| India | EB-2 | 28,194 | 27,521 | -2.4% |
| India | EB-3 | 15,097 | 16,876 | +11.8% |
| China | EB-2 | 2,269 | 6,120 | +169.7% |
| ROW | EB-2 | 16,300 | 32,968 | +102.3% |
The China EB-2 (+170%) and ROW EB-2 (+102%) growth represents new I-485 filings triggered by aggressive FAD advances — people joining the queue, not leaving it. India EB-2 was the only major category that actually shrank.
India EB-1: The Big Story of Q1
Between December and January, approximately 13,000 India EB-1 cases flipped from "awaiting" to "available" — a direct result of the FAD advancing to February 1, 2023. India EB-1 total inventory also surged 42% as new filers rushed in while dates were current.
This is good news for India EB-1 applicants, but it creates a structural tension with India EB-2 because both categories compete for the same per-country cap budget.
April 2026 Visa Bulletin: The Game-Changer
The April 2026 Visa Bulletin is the most consequential monthly update for India EB-2 in years. Here's what changed:
| Category | Mar 2026 FAD | Apr 2026 FAD | Change | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROW EB-2 | Oct 15, 2024 | Current | +Current | Spillover condition met |
| India EB-2 | Sep 15, 2013 | Jul 15, 2014 | +10 months | Largest single-month jump in years |
| Mexico EB-2 | Oct 15, 2024 | Current | +Current | Now current |
| Philippines EB-2 | Oct 15, 2024 | Current | +Current | Now current |
| ROW EB-3 | Oct 1, 2023 | Jun 1, 2024 | +8 months | Significant advance |
| EB-1 India | Mar 1, 2023 | Apr 1, 2023 | +1 month | Steady progress |
| China EB-2 | Sep 1, 2021 | Sep 1, 2021 | Unchanged | No benefit from spill |
| India EB-3 | Nov 15, 2013 | Nov 15, 2013 | Unchanged | No movement |
The 10-month India EB-2 FAD advance in a single bulletin is extraordinary. At the previous pace of ~3,000 numbers per year, a 10-month advance would have taken over 2 years. Instead it happened in one month. This is the empirical confirmation that additional visa numbers are flowing to India EB-2 far beyond the normal 7% allocation.
India EB-2 FAD Journey — Full FY2026
| Bulletin | India EB-2 FAD | Movement | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | Jan 1, 2013 | Baseline | FY2026 start |
| Nov 2025 | Jan 1, 2013 | Frozen | No change |
| Dec 2025 | Jan 1, 2013 | Frozen | No change |
| Jan 2026 | Jul 15, 2013 | +6.5 months | FY2026 Q1 base allocation |
| Feb 2026 | Jul 15, 2013 | Frozen | Quarterly pause |
| Mar 2026 | Sep 15, 2013 | +2 months | Early spillover signal |
| Apr 2026 | Jul 15, 2014 | +10 months | 202(a)(5)(A) fires; ROW EB-2 = Current |
Total India EB-2 FAD advance in FY2026 to date: +18.5 months (Jan 2013 → Jul 2014).
Why the Sudden Jump? INA 202(a)(5)(A) Explained
Under normal conditions, each country is limited to approximately 7% of the worldwide EB allocation — the "per-country cap." For India EB-2, this means approximately 3,000 visa numbers per year under the base allocation.
However, there is a statutory exception: INA Section 202(a)(5)(A). This provision states that if the total number of visas available in an EB category for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who may otherwise be issued such visas (subject to per-country limits), the visas shall be issued without regard to the per-country numerical limitation for the remainder of that quarter.
In plain language: when worldwide EB-2 supply exceeds worldwide EB-2 demand from all countries combined (at their capped rates), the per-country cap is lifted entirely. Oversubscribed countries like India absorb the remaining numbers.
Why Is This Happening Now?
The immigrant visa ban (effective January 21, 2026) suspended consular visa processing for nationals of 75 countries. This collapsed ROW EB-2 consular demand to near-zero. With ROW EB-2 FAD reaching Current in April 2026, the worldwide EB-2 supply now far exceeds capped demand — triggering the 202(a)(5)(A) exception.
| Condition | Normal Year | FY2026 (Post-Ban) |
|---|---|---|
| ROW EB-2 consular demand | High (25,000+/yr) | Near-zero (75 countries frozen) |
| EB-2 worldwide supply/quarter | ~10,725 | ~10,725 (unchanged) |
| EB-2 per-country-capped demand | ~10,000+ (absorbs supply) | ~3,000 (only India+China caps) |
| 202(a)(5)(A) fires? | No | Yes — supply exceeds capped demand |
| India EB-2 gets... | ~3,000/yr (capped) | Remainder of EB-2 pool |
This Has Happened Before: COVID FY2021–2022
The same mechanism operated during COVID. When U.S. consulates closed globally in FY2021-2022, ROW EB-2 consular demand collapsed. INA 202(a)(5)(A) fired, and India EB-2 received 30,000+ numbers in those years — far above the ~3,000 base allocation. India EB-2 FAD jumped multiple years during that period.
FY2026 follows the same pattern: the 75-country visa ban froze ROW consular processing, same mechanism, similar scale. The key question is how long the ban holds.
India EB-2: Revised Outlook (Updated)
The structural picture for India EB-2 has changed dramatically since January:
| Number Source | Mechanism | Status as of Jan 2026 | Status as of Apr 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base allocation | 7% of EB-2 worldwide | Active — ~3,000/yr | Active — ~3,000/yr |
| ROW EB-2 horizontal spillover | Requires ROW EB-2 FAD = Current | Blocked | Active — ROW EB-2 is Current |
| 202(a)(5)(A) exception | Lifts per-country cap when supply > capped demand | Not active | Active — directing thousands of extra numbers to India EB-2 |
| EB-1 vertical spillover | Unused EB-1 falls down to EB-2 | Blocked — EB-1 exhausted | Blocked — EB-1 still exhausted |
India EB-2 AOS Queue (Jan 2026 Inventory)
| Cohort (PD Year) | Available | Awaiting | Total AOS | Status with 202(a)(5)(A) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤2012 | 682 | 0 | 682 | Fully cleared |
| 2013 | 2,988 | 6,887 | 9,875 | Actively being cleared — FAD now in mid-2014 |
| 2014 | 0 | 16,964 | 16,964 | FAD Jul 2014 means AOS filings now opening |
| 2015+ | 0 | 0 | 0 | Not yet in scope |
With the 202(a)(5)(A) exception active, the 2013 PD cohort is being cleared rapidly and the 2014 cohort is now entering the processable window. This is a dramatic acceleration from the ~3,000/year pace that was projected just two months ago.
Expected India EB-2 Movement: Q2–Q4 FY2026
With ROW EB-2 at Current and the 202(a)(5)(A) exception active, here's what we may see for India EB-2 for the rest of FY2026:
Scenario Analysis
| Scenario | India EB-2 Numbers (Apr–Sep) | Estimated FAD by Sep 2026 | Probability | Key Assumption |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base case (ban holds) | ~20,000–22,000 | Could reach 2015–2016 territory | Moderate-high | No court injunction; ban holds through Sep 30 |
| Optimistic (early FY2027 windfall) | ~25,000+ | Could reach 2016–2017 | Low-moderate | Extra FB spillover boosts total EB cap mid-FY |
| Pessimistic (ban lifted Q3) | ~5,000–8,000 | May stall in 2014–2015 | Moderate | Court lifts ban; ROW demand surges back Jun–Sep |
| Worst case (Q4 retrogression) | ~2,000–4,000 | May retrogress | Low-moderate | I-485 surge exhausts EB-2 cap early |
These estimates are based on publicly available statutory mechanics and historical precedent. Actual outcomes depend on DOS visa allocation decisions, USCIS processing capacity, and the legal status of the immigrant visa ban. These are not guarantees.
Q2 (Apr–Jun 2026): The Spillover Quarter
With ROW EB-2 now Current and the 202(a)(5)(A) exception active, India EB-2 is likely receiving the bulk of remaining EB-2 worldwide numbers. The April bulletin's 10-month jump suggests thousands of numbers already flowing. If the ban holds, May and June bulletins could show continued multi-month FAD advances.
Q3 (Jul–Sep 2026): The Risk Quarter
This is where retrogression risk peaks. DOS explicitly warned in the March 2026 bulletin that "retrogression may be necessary later in the fiscal year to keep issuances within annual limits." Historical precedent supports this — in FY2025, the August bulletin retrogressed ROW EB-2 due to high demand approaching the annual limit.
If a surge of new I-485 filings from the 2014 PD cohort (triggered by the DFF advance) overwhelms processing capacity, DOS may tighten dates in August or September.
What Could Derail This?
- Court lifts the 75-country ban: If a federal court issues an injunction, ROW consular demand returns immediately, 202(a)(5)(A) stops firing, and India EB-2 reverts to ~3,000/year. Lawsuits are pending.
- I-485 filing surge: The DFF advance means thousands of 2014 PD holders can now file I-485. If USCIS receives more applications than projected, DOS may retrogress dates.
- EB-2 annual cap exhaustion: If the EB-2 worldwide pool runs out in August or September, the category goes unavailable until October 1 (FY2027 start).
The Per-Country Cap Tension: EB-1 vs EB-2
India's total EB quota across all categories is approximately 26,320 per year (7% of the combined FB+EB pool). This single budget must serve EB-1, EB-2, EB-3, EB-4, and EB-5 combined.
| Category | India Cases "Available" (Jan 2026) | % of Per-Country Cap |
|---|---|---|
| India EB-1 | 18,729 | 71% |
| India EB-2 | 3,670 | 14% |
| India EB-3 | 3,585 | 14% |
| India EB-4+5 | ~956 | 4% |
Under normal operations, India EB-1's "available" cases consume 71% of the per-country budget, leaving very little for EB-2. However, when 202(a)(5)(A) is active, the per-country cap is lifted entirely for EB-2 — meaning this structural tension temporarily disappears for EB-2 (though it still constrains EB-1 and EB-3).
FY2026 and FY2027 Cap Context
| Fiscal Year | EB Annual Limit | FB→EB Spillover | 202(a)(5)(A)? | India EB-2 Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2022 | 281,507 | ~141,000 | Yes (COVID) | 30,000+ numbers; multi-year FAD jumps |
| FY2023 | 197,091 | ~57,000 | Partial | Moderate benefit |
| FY2024 | 160,791 | ~21,000 | No | ~3,000 base only |
| FY2025 | 150,037 | ~10,000 | No | ~3,000 base only |
| FY2026 (est.) | ~150,000 | ~10,000 | Yes (visa ban) | ~20,000–22,000 projected (Apr–Sep) |
| FY2027 (proj.) | 200,000–211,000 | 61,000–71,000 | Likely yes | Potentially 15,000–20,000+ |
FY2027 could extend the momentum. The immigrant visa ban (effective January 21, 2026) suspended family-based visa issuance for nationals of 75 countries. If the ban holds through September 30, 2026, those unused FB numbers spill into FY2027's EB cap under INA §201(d) — potentially pushing it above 200,000. Combined with likely 202(a)(5)(A) conditions again, India EB-2 could see continued large allocations in FY2027.
Whether those extra numbers actually get utilized depends on USCIS processing capacity — see the full FY2026/FY2027 analysis.
What Should You Do Right Now?
- If your PD is current (before Jul 15, 2014): File I-485 immediately if you haven't already. Do not wait. Retrogression in Q4 is a real possibility — having your I-485 on file before any potential retrogression is critical.
- If your PD is close (2014–2016): Watch the May and June bulletins closely. If the ban holds and 202(a)(5)(A) continues, your DFF may become current in the coming months. Prepare your I-485 documentation now.
- If your PD is 2017+: FY2027 is your window. The projected 200K+ EB cap could bring significant movement. Use the Priority Date Estimator for a personalized timeline.
- Monitor monthly: The Visa Bulletin page tracks FAD and DFF movement over time. Subscribe to the free newsletter for monthly updates.
- Consider EB-2 vs EB-3: With EB-3 India frozen at Nov 2013 while EB-2 jumped to Jul 2014, the EB-2 advantage is growing. If you have flexibility, understand your interfiling options.
- Consult an attorney for filing strategy specific to your case, especially around timing and retrogression risk — find one here
Retrogression Warning
DOS explicitly warned in the March 2026 bulletin: "retrogression may be necessary later in the fiscal year to keep issuances within annual limits." This is not hypothetical — in FY2025, the August Visa Bulletin retrogressed ROW EB-2 due to high demand.
Anyone with a priority date that is currently current should act immediately and not assume the favorable dates will hold through September 2026. The window created by 202(a)(5)(A) could close if the ban is lifted by court order, if demand exceeds projections, or if the EB-2 annual cap is exhausted early.
Data Sources
This analysis is based on: USCIS pending I-485 inventory reports (October, November, December 2025 and January 2026 snapshots), Department of State Visa Bulletins (October 2025 through April 2026), INA Section 202(a)(5)(A) statutory text, USCIS Employment-Based Adjustment of Status FAQs, and publicly available immigration attorney analysis. USCIS suppresses cell values under 5 in inventory reports ('D' in the data).
As of March 2026, USCIS has not published the official FY2026 EB annual limit. All visa bulletins state only "at least 140,000" — the statutory floor. The ~150K estimate is based on community analysis of FY2025 family-based usage. The India EB-2 spillover estimates assume the 75-country immigrant visa ban holds through September 30, 2026.
This article provides general information based on publicly available USCIS data and statutory provisions. Estimates are based on historical trends, inventory data, and statutory mechanics — actual outcomes may vary significantly depending on policy changes, court decisions, processing capacity, and other factors. This is not legal advice. Consult a qualified immigration attorney for guidance specific to your situation.
--- **Update (April 25, 2026): Revised projection.** The May 2026 Visa Bulletin Section D explicitly stated the State Department is routing unused immigrant visa numbers from disrupted-country applicants to non-disrupted ones. Our March model treated lost demand as evaporating, projecting roughly 95,000 family-to-employment spillover for FY2027. After incorporating per-country redistribution mechanics (including F2A's per-country cap exemption under INA 202(a)(4)(A)), our revised range for FY2027 family-to-employment spillover lands between 20,000 and 50,000 — still material for employment-based applicants, but smaller than initially projected. See our [full revision write-up](/blog/revising-fy2027-fb-spillover-may-2026-bulletin) for the methodology change. Actual numbers depend on whether DOS continues redistributing through the rest of FY2026 and how aggressively cutoffs advance in subsequent bulletins. *Estimates are based on publicly available data from the U.S. Department of State and USCIS. Spillover figures are approximations — actual allocations may differ. Not legal advice.*