March 2026 Visa Bulletin: EB Category Movement Analysis

The March 2026 Visa Bulletin was released on February 10, 2026 by the U.S. Department of State. In isolation it looked like a typical mid-fiscal-year update with small, measured advances in most categories. In hindsight it was the first tremor of the much larger April 2026 spillover event that reshaped the EB-2 India queue.

This post walks through what actually moved in March, why it moved, and how the March data pointed toward the April shift before the Department of State officially confirmed the 202(a)(5)(A) exception was active.

Update: The April 2026 Visa Bulletin analysis is now available. India EB-2 FAD jumped 10 months to July 2014 as ROW EB-2 hit Current and the per-country cap exception fully activated.

How to Read a Visa Bulletin, Briefly

Every month the State Department publishes two tables per preference category:

• Final Action Dates (Chart A): the cutoff date that determines when USCIS can approve a green card. Your priority date must be earlier than the chart date for your country and category.
• Dates for Filing (Chart B): a separate, typically earlier cutoff that determines when you can submit an I-485 adjustment of status application. USCIS publishes a separate monthly notice saying which chart to use.

Most applicants watch both charts. The FAD determines when you actually get the green card; the DFF (when USCIS honors it) determines when you can file I-485 to get an EAD and Advance Parole while waiting.

EB-2 India: The Signal in March

The March 2026 Final Action Date for EB-2 India moved to September 15, 2013, advancing several weeks from February. On its own, a few weeks of motion is unremarkable for EB-2 India. The backlog for this category commonly moves in small increments.

What made March notable was the direction of ROW (Rest of World) EB-2. ROW EB-2 Final Action Date was still listed with a cutoff in March rather than Current, but demand and consular issuance patterns in the preceding quarter made it increasingly likely that ROW would go Current within the next bulletin or two.

That matters because of INA Section 202(a)(5)(A), a rarely-triggered statutory exception that says if worldwide demand for EB visas in oversubscribed countries exceeds the share available to them under the per-country cap, the remaining numbers get redirected to those oversubscribed countries. When ROW is Current, there is excess supply that can flow to India and China above the normal ~7% per-country allocation. The March bulletin was the moment you could tell the condition was likely to fire in April.

EB-3 India: Held Steady

EB-3 India remained at November 15, 2013 in March, no change from February. The per-country cap remained the primary bottleneck for EB-3 India. Unlike EB-2, the 202(a)(5)(A) mechanism did not redirect meaningful supply to EB-3 India in this cycle because ROW EB-3 was not Current; ROW EB-3 carried its own cutoff and thus absorbed its allocation.

For applicants weighing an EB-2 to EB-3 "downgrade" (filing a parallel EB-3 case using the EB-2 priority date), March was a moment to pause. Historically EB-3 India has sometimes moved faster than EB-2 India. When 202(a)(5)(A) is active, the dynamic reverses: EB-2 India benefits disproportionately from ROW underuse, while EB-3 India is mostly stuck.

EB-1: Incremental Movement

EB-1 was Current for all Rest of World applicants in March, as is typical. India EB-1 Final Action Date advanced to March 1, 2023, a measured and consistent advance. China EB-1 carried its own cutoff with similar steady movement. EB-1 is less affected by cross-category spillover because it sits at the top of the cascade; unused EB-1 flows down to EB-2, not the other way.

China (Mainland)

China EB-2 remained at September 1, 2021 in March. China is also per-country capped, but its I-485 inventory and I-140 demand are substantially lower than India's, so the movement dynamics are different. China did not benefit materially from 202(a)(5)(A) in April because the statutory mechanism redirects excess supply based on relative demand pressure, and China EB-2 demand is a fraction of India EB-2 demand.

Family-Based Categories

Family-based movement in March was routine, with small advances in F1, F2B, F3, and F4, and the India and Mexico variants of those categories showing their usual slow pace. Family-based is separate from the employment-based allocation and follows its own statutory math.

What March Meant in Hindsight

Read in isolation, the March 2026 bulletin was unremarkable. Read against what actually happened in April, March was the last "normal" bulletin before 202(a)(5)(A) produced the biggest single-month EB-2 India advance in years. The subsequent April bulletin moved EB-2 India FAD to July 15, 2014, a 10-month jump driven almost entirely by ROW EB-2 going Current and redirecting unused numbers to oversubscribed countries.

A few things to watch in upcoming months:

• Will 202(a)(5)(A) keep firing? It depends on whether ROW demand stays low. The 75-country immigrant visa ban that began January 21, 2026 has suppressed ROW consular demand; if that changes (court order, policy reversal, negotiated resolution), ROW demand returns and the spillover stops.
• Could dates retrogress? Yes. DOS has warned that dates may retrogress later in the fiscal year if filings surge past annual supply. If you are current under DFF, filing promptly rather than waiting is the conservative move.
• EB-3 strategy: With EB-2 India benefiting asymmetrically from 202(a)(5)(A), EB-3 downgrades look less attractive for 2014-2016 priority dates than they did in previous years.

Plan With Data, Not Gut Feel

• Priority Date Estimator: enter your priority date and category for a personalized estimate based on the latest bulletin data.
• Community Timelines: browse self-reported case milestones from other applicants in similar situations.
• April 2026 deep dive: the follow-up analysis with January 2026 I-485 inventory data and multi-scenario projections.

Visa bulletin data is updated automatically on this site the day each new bulletin is published. Subscribe to the free newsletter for monthly bulletin summaries delivered to your inbox.

Source: U.S. Department of State Visa Bulletin for March 2026, travel.state.gov. This analysis is informational only and is not legal advice. Priority date movement is affected by factors that can change unexpectedly; past movement is not a guarantee of future movement.

--- **Update (April 25, 2026): Revised projection.** The May 2026 Visa Bulletin Section D explicitly stated the State Department is routing unused immigrant visa numbers from disrupted-country applicants to non-disrupted ones. Our March model treated lost demand as evaporating, projecting roughly 95,000 family-to-employment spillover for FY2027. After incorporating per-country redistribution mechanics (including F2A's per-country cap exemption under INA 202(a)(4)(A)), our revised range for FY2027 family-to-employment spillover lands between 20,000 and 50,000 — still material for employment-based applicants, but smaller than initially projected. See our [full revision write-up](/blog/revising-fy2027-fb-spillover-may-2026-bulletin) for the methodology change. Actual numbers depend on whether DOS continues redistributing through the rest of FY2026 and how aggressively cutoffs advance in subsequent bulletins. *Estimates are based on publicly available data from the U.S. Department of State and USCIS. Spillover figures are approximations — actual allocations may differ. Not legal advice.*